2023 Baseball Hall of Fame voting: 11 takeaways, including hope for Carlos Beltrán and Todd Helton

The outcomes of the 2023 BBWAA portion of the Baseball Hall of Fame vote have been revealed and (*11*)Scott Rolen is now a Hall of Famerhaving acquired 76.3 % of the vote. (*11*)Here are the complete outcomes with official vote percentages. Players wanted 75 % of the vote to make it and not less than 5 % of the vote to stay on the poll for subsequent 12 months, as much as 10 years.

Let’s dive deeper into the largest takeaways from our Hall of Fame season.

1. This is definitely a two-man class

First of all, (*11*)the Contemporary Era committee already chosen Fred McGriff. There shall be a Hall of Fame ceremony honoring two gamers this coming summer season. McGriff is 59 years outdated whereas Rolen is 47. Both performed for a handful of groups and it ought to make for a enjoyable occasion weekend.

2. Rolen’s case can present hope

In 2018, on a way more crowded poll, Rolen bought simply 10.2 % of the vote. But because the poll cleared through the years with inductions of Hall of Famers and big-name gamers falling off with out induction, spots cleared on the ballots of voters for Rolen. There was additionally a swell of help from a number of corners of the web, declaring Rolen’s protection deserved much more credit score and that confirmed up in stats like WAR.

Rolen’s transfer from 10.2 % of the vote to creating it by way of the author’s vote was the largest in historical past. It’s a report that may not stand lengthy, as there are a number of gamers we’ll talk about under making a transfer just like Rolen.

Certainly, huge strikes after fairly small beginnings is a theme with a number of of the outstanding candidates on this poll.

3. Helton proper on the precipice

Ass (*11*)I detailed in discussing Rolen final month, it is extremely uncommon for gamers to high 62 % with time to spare on the poll and not get voted in shortly thereafter, whether or not only one or two extra rounds of voting. Rolen was over that mark final 12 months and made it this time round. Next up, Todd Helton.

Helton, in his fifth 12 months, bought 72.2 %. It can be unprecedented for a participant to get to that degree of the vote in his fifth 12 months and not be inducted into the Hall.

Using the accessible knowledge, zero public ballots had 10 votes that didn’t embody Helton. This is to say that even with gamers like Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer approaching the poll subsequent 12 months, the overwhelming majority of voters both voted for Helton or have spot(s) accessible so as to add him. There shall be new voters. Some voters will lapse on account of not overlaying the sport anymore. Some voters rethink their stance on gamers as soon as they get this near the 75 % marker.

For all these causes, Helton is sort of actually going to be voted in subsequent 12 months.

4. Beltrán has hope

Carlos Beltrán has a statistical file that belongs within the Hall of Fame, however since his retirement, the sign-stealing scandal has clouded his Hall of Fame probabilities ((*11*)full breakdown right here).

The excellent news right here for Beltrán is he is beginning at a reasonably respectable quantity: 46.5 % of the vote in his first attempt.

It’s not the perfect comparability to loop in PED-connected gamers, nevertheless it’s the perfect we have got. The gamers who’ve been held out of the Hall of Fame on account of being tied to PEDs began within the mid-30s in share or decrease. Most of them had been decrease, truly, it was actually solely Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds within the mid-30s.

With Beltrán beginning out right here, he is already in a a lot better place. Anecdotally, I’ve additionally learn a number of columns from outstanding writers who stated they’re planning to rethink in future years after not voting for Beltrán right here in his first time on the poll. And some individuals actually do maintain up “first-ballot Hall of Famer” as a sacred honor.

In all, I feel the outcomes for Beltrán are a web optimistic. We’ll see how a lot headway he makes subsequent time round — with the “first poll” factor not being hooked up and presumably a number of of these aforementioned writers reconsidering his case — with out making any sweeping declarations, although.

5. A-Rod has much less hope

The Hall of Fame case for Alex Rodriguez is (*11*)sophisticated. We all already knew that. Before the vote final 12 months, we could not ensure how precisely the vote would begin shaping up for him. This was his second go-round on the poll and it was his first with out the likes of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Bonds could possibly be the perfect highway map right here between the PED connections and all-time nice numbers by a place participant, though Bonds was by no means suspended beneath MLB’s JDA and A-Rod was nailed with one of the largest punishments in historical past. Bonds began within the mid-30s and topped out at 66 % in his remaining 12 months. The voting physique will proceed to evolve in the direction of a extra new-school mindset, however there are future voters who would have voted in Bonds and will not go together with A-Rod as a result of suspension.

Well, A-Rod bought 34.3 % of the vote final 12 months and 35.7 % this time.

That’s most likely inside the vary of stagnation, proper? I do know I usually point out issues in regards to the voting physique altering, opinions evolving and stuff like that, however he barely moved.

Simply, whereas issues might change, he appears to be caught.

6. Wagner, Jones in respectable form now

Billy Wagner began off in 2016 with round 10 % of the vote (take word of the Rolen part above). Through 4 rounds, it was simply 16.7 %, however he is on the transfer now.

2020: 31.7%
2021: 46.4%
2022: 51%
2023: 68.1%

Wagner nonetheless has two ballots left and an actual shot at getting house. It would possibly even occur subsequent 12 months. He’s actually shut now.

Not fairly as shut, however transferring in vary nonetheless is Andruw Jones. He began off having to sweat out simply staying above 5 %. He bought simply 7.5 % in his second poll, however then he began to get some traction.

2020: 19.4%
2021: 33.9%
2022: 41.4%
2023: 58.1%

This was Jones’ sixth time on the poll, so he bought 4 extra voting cycles to make up lower than 20 %. If so, he would snap Rolen’s report with ease.

Still, with each gamers however significantly Jones since he is additional away: There’s all the time the hazard of plateauing. That is, a participant can get to a sure share and then stagnate. It varies participant to participant as a result of, properly, each single Hall of Fame case is exclusive and they’re all being voted on by an ever-changing voters.

Overall, although, issues are trying up for Wagner and it actually looks as if Jones has the momentum to get him in ultimately. Someone who plateaued lately who had a possibly-great night time was an all-time nice bat waggler.

7. Sheffield inside vary?

This was Gary Sheffield’s ninth time on the poll. He made huge good points in 2019-21, going from 13.6 % to 40.6, however he bought precisely 40.6 % once more in 2022. It appeared like perhaps all hope was misplaced. Instead, he is moved into the possibly-overused-but-still-fun “so that you’re telling me there’s an opportunity” vary.

Sheffield bought 55 % of the vote this 12 months.

Perhaps there shall be a pleasant final-year bump? Kent bought a lift of greater than 13 %, though that would not be sufficient. One of the most important single-year, final-ballot jumps ever seen was Larry Walker, who jumped from 54.6 % in his ninth 12 months to 76.6 to get in on his remaining attempt.

If Sheffield could make such good points with the voting physique subsequent 12 months, he’ll get in. That’s a really tall hill to climb, clearly, nevertheless it’s potential.

8. Kent falls off the poll

Jeff Kent was the one participant on this poll for the tenth time. As such, it was his proverbial swan track. We knew he wasn’t going to get shut, however he did set up a brand new excessive with 46.5 % of the vote, greater than 10 share factors above his earlier excessive of 32.7 %. It’s a feather in his cap to get practically 50 % of the vote whereas hanging round on the poll for a decade. It’s robust simply to get on the poll and Kent can relaxation simple figuring out he clearly made a mark on baseball historical past.

Plus, my hunch is (*11*)Kent will do a lot better with the committee votes (like McGriff), so this could possibly be a blessing in disguise. I’d wager he is within the Hall inside the subsequent decade.

9. Possible cause for optimism?

The following gamers are decrease on the poll however have an opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle the best way Rolen did (and comparable in vogue to the way it seems Helton, Jones and perhaps Sheffield and Wagner are).

  • Andy Pettitte jumped from 10.7 % to 17. This is his fifth 12 months on the poll, so he’ll want some greater leaps, nevertheless it’s a place to begin.
  • Bobby Abreu went from 8.6 to fifteen.4 % on this his fourth 12 months. It’s a really good bump.
  • Jimmy Rollins went from 9.4 to 12.9 %. Very modest certainly on the good points and vote share, nevertheless it’s solely his second poll and Chase Utley is coming quickly. It’s all the time potential when discussing Utley and Rollins collectively on the poll that there is a mutual push in voting for the double-play combo. It did not work for Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammell, however the instances are altering.
  • Mark Buehrle went from 5.8 to 10.8 %. I dove into (*11*)his case as an all-time workhorse not too long ago and perhaps extra will proceed to come back round on him.
  • This was the poll debut for Francisco “Okay-Rod” Rodriguez. He began with 10.8 % of the vote. While Rolen’s entry supplies hope for all gamers, the motion of Wagner is especially telling with Okay-Rod and different elite-level closers transferring ahead. It’s way more troublesome for closers to make the Hall, however getting Wagner in subsequent 12 months might assist clear the best way for some momentum for Okay-Rod.

10. No-man’s land

Now onto the gamers who appear to not have an opportunity at induction despite the fact that they proceed to linger on the poll.

  • Manny Ramirez truly went from 28.9 % to 33.2 %, however he is nonetheless not even midway house and has solely three ballots left. I simply can’t see sufficient room for enchancment there.
  • Omar Vizquel’s descent continues. From 52.6 in 2020 to 49.1 to 23.9 and now to 19.5 % in his sixth attempt. There’s a greater likelihood he’ll fall off the poll earlier than his 10 years are up than turning issues round and gaining enshrinement.
  • Torii Hunter went up from 5.3 to six.9 %, however he is nonetheless awfully near being five-percent after a really small achieve in his third 12 months. He most likely must stand up over 10 % subsequent 12 months to have any kind of hope, however my guess is that is all a formality.

11. Five-percented

The following gamers failed to succeed in 5 % of the vote, which means they’re faraway from the poll transferring ahead: Bronson Arroyo, RA Dickey, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Huston Street, Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, JJ Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Jered Weaver and Jayson Werth. Notably, these had been all first-timers. Every holdover bought not less than 5 % of the vote.

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