One draw back I’ve observed in this stat-heavy period of fantasy baseball is that we generally wrestle to see potential breakouts from guys who haven’t got clear indicators in their underlying knowledge. I perceive why, however it could result in glossing over progress candidates who take improvement strides past what their numbers counsel.
Trent Grisham | SDP, OF | 271 ADP – 63rd OF
It was an unquestionably unhealthy season on the dish for Grish. He posted a career-low 83 wRC+ with 17 HR, 7 SB, and a career-high 29% Okay price in 524 PA. He performed sufficient robust protection to internet a second Gold Glove win and put up a 3rd straight 2-WAR season. He had the specified 100-point AVG/OBP break up however that is much less spectacular when he hit simply .184! He values his walks with an 11% price this previous season and for his profession, however maybe being a bit extra aggressive would favor him.
With his profession 26% Okay price and eight% SwStr price, he’s one among three hitters with a 25%+ Okay price and sub-10% SwStr since 2019 (min. 1000 PA) joined by Cavan Biggio (27%, 9% ) and Daniel Vogelbach (25%, 7%). Vogey is the one one of many three delivering sufficient energy to justify such a excessive strikeout price regardless of not having a swing-and-miss downside. Grisham has the weather to be a stud with energy, velocity, and endurance on the dish and locked in enjoying time through his glove. A plummet down the board from a 132 ADP final yr to 270 up to now this yr retains me .
Spencer Torkelson | DET, 1B | 285th – twenty fifth 1B
At no level earlier than his mid-July demotion to Triple-A did I believe Torkelson regarded utterly overmatched in the majors. He wasn’t doing effectively, and the outcomes had been poor (69 wRC+ in 298 PA), however he nonetheless regarded the a part of an enormous leaguer. I do know that is a judgment name by me and it is likely to be laced with copium, however that is how I felt watching him day-to-day. He was higher upon return with a 95 wRC+ in 106 September PA, however the demotion wasn’t a magic repair and the improved outcomes did not actually transfer the underside line (76 wRC+ in 404 PA) so he’ll stay low cost in 2023 drafts . He has a present ADP at 285 and I simply do not see a path to him surging so the highest worth you’d doubtless must pay is across the early-200s. At that truthful worth, I’m not quitting a blue-chip prospect after simply 404 poor PA.
Brandon Marsh | PHI, OF | 270 ADP – 61st OF
Those of you continue to totally purchased in on Marsh (hello, Justin!) most likely did not love his commerce to Philadelphia. Yes, Philadelphia is a park improve and their determined want for high quality protection doubtless lengthens his leash as he develops, however his improved line with the Phillies seems like a leap in improvement that can push his 2023 draft worth up a bit. His 114 wRC+ in Philly is unquestionably higher than the 79 with the Angels, however there wasn’t a ton (any?) ability enchancment with the leap. He had a .398 BABIP driving the pattern as he hit .288/.319/.455 regardless of the 30% Okay and 5% BB charges. His composite line was nonetheless in line along with his 2021 (89 wRC+ in comparison with 85 in ’21).
The run with the Phillies and some key playoff homers have doubtless pushed his draft worth up a number of rounds. His 270 ADP continues to be lots reasonably priced, however had he completed the season in LA and accomplished the very same factor (sans the playoff work as a result of… effectively, you understand), I really feel like he’d have began draft season exterior the Top 300. I see him rising even additional up the board because the offseason evolves. Christopher Morel and Ramón Laureano are going at 227 and 229, respectively, and whereas each had been incrementally higher than Marsh this yr, I do not see a 40-50 choose break up between them. Jarred Kelenic is subsequent amongst OF at 241 and there is not any likelihood I’d take him over Marsh at this level.
Leody Taveras | TEX, OF | 394 ADP – ninetieth OF
OK, he wasn’t a full on dud in his 2022 pattern (5 HR, 11 SB, 93 wRC+), however he has only a 75 wRC+ in his 660 MLB PA since 2020 so he suits what I’m going for right here. He does have 29 SB in that point, however he should enhance the .226/.280/.344 line to earn the belief of the Rangers and hopefully his respectable .261/.309/.366 line in ’22 does simply that. He has the protection to command constant enjoying time even with a mid-90s wRC+ and he can stay an affect fantasy participant at that stage due to the velocity.
That mentioned, he has proven sufficient flashes of pop (24 HR in 602 AAA PA, 88th percentile Max EV in MLB) to be fairly a bit extra. Steamer has him at 13 HR/16 SB/95 wRC+ in 503 PA which is smart however does promote him brief on the SBs. I’ll take 10-12 HR with 20+ SB if he’s certainly given 500+ PA in his age-24 season. At this worth, he would not even want to come back near that to repay so there may be main upside right here. And sure, I’ve been touting Taveras for years, however he is nonetheless so younger!