5 Best Bets Including Pacers vs. Knicks (Wednesday, January 11)

The NBA common season continues on Wednesday with an thrilling eight-game slate. Our NBA consultants have 5 greatest bets for you tonight, together with three bets (a prop guess, unfold decide and complete play) on Pacers vs. Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Find their picks and evaluation for tonight’s matchups under.

NBA Odds & Picks

Pacers vs. Knicks Prop

Pick
Myles Turner Over 1.5 3s and three+ 3s (+600)
Book
FanDuel
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass/MSG

Joe Dellera: The Knicks have been vulnerable to the 3-ball all season and permit them at one of many highest charges within the league. Knicks’ opponents shoot 38.9% of their pictures from 3-point vary with a proportional distribution between the nook and above the break. While they restrict their opponents’ conversions on these 3s, they’ve struggled in opposition to stretch bigs. Recently, the Knicks have allowed Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, Doug McDemott and Christian Wood all to exceed their 3-point prop.

Enter, Myles Turner.

Turner has had success in opposition to the Knicks. Last season he canned seven 3s in opposition to the Knicks on 10 makes an attempt in a single sport. He has now exceeded his 3s prop in three of 5 in opposition to the Knicks the final two seasons. The distinction is quantity. Turner is averaging 4.1 3-point makes an attempt the final two seasons. Against the Knicks? 6.2 makes an attempt.

The quantity will increase dramatically because of the Knicks’ defensive scheme, which typically traces Mitchell Robinson in a drop in opposition to somebody like Myles Turner. Turner is capturing 37.9% from 3 this season, and I challenge him at nearer to 2.3 made 3s. I’ll take the juicy bottom line at 1.5 (+165), and I’ll sprinkle 3+ 3s as nicely (+600 at FanDuel).



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Pacers vs. Knicks Spread

Pick
Pacers +4.5
Book
FanDuel
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass/MSG

Matt Moore: The Knicks are wretched at residence this season, 7-12-2 ATS and 6-8-1 as a favourite. Indiana is 9-7 ATS on the street. The Pacers are additionally fifth in 3-pointers per 100 possessions, and the Knicks surrender the third-most 3-point makes an attempt per 100 possessions.

This reeks of a sport the place the Knicks construct an enormous lead, the Pacers storm again, and it is shut down the stretch. I’ll have a half-unit on the Pacers ML as nicely.


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Pacers vs. Knicks Total

Pick
Over 226.5
Book
BetMGM
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass/MSG

Chris Baker: These groups do not matchup nicely with one another in any respect right here. The Pacers are the league’s worst defensive rebounding workforce, and the Knicks rank third in Offensive Rebound Rate on the yr. The Pacers offense ranks fifth in 3-point Attempt Rate, whereas the Knicks protection ranks twenty seventh in 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed.

The Indiana protection additionally ranks twenty seventh in Rim Rate whereas the Knicks offense ranks fifteenth. Finally, the Pacers rank twenty ninth in Free Throw Rate Allowed and shall be going up in opposition to a bodily Knicks offense that ranks thirteenth in FT Rate.

There are so many mismatches on each ends of the ball, however on prime of the mismatches, it’s extremely seemingly that each of those defenses are being overrated proper now. The Knicks have performed 5 of their final six video games in opposition to bottom-10 offenses. The Pacers protection has performed the eighth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses on the season, based on dunksandthrees.com.

We may additionally get an added increase to the offensive output with the potential return of RJ Barrett for the Knicks. Barrett has struggled defensively this season because the Knicks’ Defensive Rating will increase by 7.6 factors per 100 possessions (seventh percentile) when he’s on the courtroom.

Only Jalen Brunson has a worse on-court Defensive Rating swing for the Knicks. Brunson and Barrett have each been optimistic contributors on the offensive finish so each of them being wholesome would additional favor this over.

On the Pacers aspect, they might be with out their defensive level of assault stud TJ McConnell. McConnell has been one in every of their greatest defenders, however their offense craters when he’s within the sport as he has a -7.6 Offensive Rating swing (eleventh percentile). His absence would hurt the Pacers protection however seemingly profit their offense right here. Expect factors at MSG and play this as much as 228.5.



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Bucks vs. Hawks Total

Pick
Under 236.5
Book
DraftKings
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
ESPN

Matt Moore: This is a superb fade or observe decide as a result of I’m strolling into the fireplace.

This quantity opened at 232.5, proper round the place I challenge it. I took the below on our Buckets podcast at the moment as a result of the Bucks are an ideal protection with a number of random performances (Christmas vs. the Celtics, final week vs. the Hornets) which have skewed their defensive profile.

Then I wakened this morning to this complete having jumped a full 4 factors to 236.5. So I’m fading the steam, which all the time makes me nauseous, however I actually cannot get consistent with this going over. Milwaukee’s offense is horrible, extraordinarily pedestrian, and Atlanta’s protection is seventeenth (schedule-adjusted).

The common complete within the three prior matchups between these two groups this season was 224.5. I can see no motive for a full 12-point leap, and even the eight-point leap earlier than the steam.

The market strongly believes this factor goes over, however I can not get there. An axiom I’ve tried to undertake in betting is that it’s a must to be OK with being unsuitable if the guess loses. I’m OK if I’m unsuitable on this. This quantity ought to be decrease.


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Spurs vs. Grizzlies Spread

Pick
Grizzlies -13.5
Book
FanDuel
tip off
8 pm ET
TV
League Pass

Matt Moore: Memphis is 11-0 straight up and 6-4-1 ATS vs. groups below .500 at residence this season. The Grizzlies are 11-6-1 ATS as residence favorites general.

This is a duplex spot, dealing with the identical workforce twice in the identical metropolis on back-to-back video games. The Spurs barely coated the primary matchup. Teams at residence favored in each video games who gained the primary matchup outright are 29-23-1 (55%) ATS on this spot.

Memphis likes to placed on reveals in opposition to unhealthy groups at residence, and so they’ll placed on one other one right here with Ja Morant again. I’m laying the heavy lumber right here.



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