5 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds

Dolphins Odds +3.5
Bengals Odds -3.5
Moneyline +152 / -180
Over/Under 48.5
Time Thursday, 8:15 pm ET
TV Amazon Prime Video
Odds by way of FanDuel.

For the most recent NFL odds, click on right here.


Dolphins vs. Bengals Picks

Pick
Bengals -3.5
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

Stuckey: I believe we have to decelerate the love for the Dolphins, who I’ve seen some label as the very best workforce within the NFL after their most up-to-date win over the Bills to enhance to 3-0 on the season, becoming a member of the Eagles as the one remaining unblemished groups.

Miami has definitely improved, however that is loopy discuss.

This workforce may simply and arguably must be 1-2. The Dolphins had an inconceivable comeback in Week 2 in opposition to the Ravens in a recreation the place Baltimore had a 99% postgame win expectancy.

Then, final week in opposition to the Bills, they had been outgained 497-212 even with Buffalo shedding a plethora of starters on either side of the ball with others cramping up all through. If you embrace time of possession and snap depend, we’ve not seen that inconceivable of a win in 25 years. Even in opposition to the Patriots in Week 1, Miami solely bought to twenty factors even with a defensive TD in a reasonably even recreation statistically.

Now, the Dolphins should journey on a brief week to face the defending AFC champions, who seemingly lastly figured some issues out in a blow out win final week. This is a horrible spot for the beat up Fins, who could even be with out Tua Tagovailoa and have a protection that must be gassed after dealing with 90 performs in opposition to the Bills offense just a few days prior.

Miami’s protection, which I believe got here into the yr overrated after dealing with many backups final yr, additionally likes to blitz. That’s not a recipe for achievement in opposition to Joe Burrow.

Think this can be a good buy-low/sell-high spot on Cincy as much as -4.

Tail Stuckey on Bengals -3.5 at FanDuel


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Pick
Bengals -3.5
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

Simon Hunter: We’ve seen this quantity leap throughout. It opened at Bengals -1.5, jumped as much as -4 and seems to have settled on Thursday morning at -3.5.

How can Miami bounce again in 4 days from such an emotionally draining divisional win over Buffalo? Not solely is Tua Tagovailoa battling a again damage, however LT Terron Armstead and WR Jaylen Waddle are additionally injured. None of them follow this week till a walkthrough.

The Bengals, alternatively, had a snug 27-12 win over the Jets. There are not any accidents on the offense, with Joe Mixon in a position to follow this week.

We have had a few developments that favor the Bengals. Since 2015, groups coming off an outright win as an underdog which might be additionally underdogs on Thursday Night Football are 0-12 straight-up (SU) and 1-11 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). When they’re enjoying on the highway, they’re 0-8 SU and ATS.

This is just a nasty spot for the Dolphins. I’ll take the Bengals as much as 4.5.


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Pick
Under 48.5
Best Book
(*5*)
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

Sam Farley: Thursday Night Football serves us up a deal with with the Dolphins touring into the Paul Brown Stadium seeking to prolong their 3-0 document.

The Dolphins have not had a difficulty placing up factors this season, with 83 factors scored via three video games because of top-of-the-line pass-catching duos within the NFL: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Bengals even have an unbelievable array of expertise, so there is a feeling that this recreation may explode.

However, the road has dropped from 47.5 since opening however is again as much as 48.5 at BetMGM as of 11:15 am ET on Thursday.

With this being a brief week and with Tagovailoa being banged up, this looks as if a recreation through which the beneath actually leaps out. The beneath has hit within the Bengals previous eight video games and that might prolong to 9 come Thursday evening.

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Pick
Bengals 1H -2.5
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

John Lanfranca: This is an easy situational play in opposition to the Dolphins.

Miami is coming off an unbelievable effort in a detailed victory in opposition to a divisional rival. The Dolphins protection was on the sector for 90 performs and may need actually left all of it on the sector. Now, in a fast turnaround, they’re requested to journey and do it as soon as extra.

The Bengals offense has improved every week in line with DVOA, and it lastly posted its first constructive outing of the season in Week 3. Burrow was solely sacked twice in what was an environment friendly efficiency on the highway.

The Dolphins are banged up coming into this recreation, as effectively, though I anticipate most of their key offensive items to play. The Bengals can feed off of the house crowd and leap on a drained Miami squad early on this contest.

Some books have moved the primary half line to -3 already, so avoiding that key quantity is significant right here.


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Pick
Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

Charlie DiSturco: While the Bengals have struggled to determine the run and defend Joe Burrow this season, it opens the door for Joe Mixon’s versatility as a pass-catching again to shine on Thursday evening.

Through the opening three weeks, Mixon has caught 13 passes for 103 yards, and has eclipsed this present receiving yards prop (20.5) twice. He now will get a positive matchup in opposition to a Dolphins protection that simply surrendered 78 receiving yards to Devin Singletary.

I anticipate an identical defensive setup from Miami on Thursday, the place they depart safeties excessive to restrict Ja’Marr Chase — like they did with Stefon Diggs — and drive Burrow into his second reads and, in the end, checkdowns.

The Bengals are backside 10 in cross blocking, in line with Pro Football Focus, via three weeks, and proper deal with La’El Collins is questionable. That may result in much more appears to be like for Mixon, who has been focused 20 instances in three video games.

Until the Bengals shore up their offensive line, I’ll look to again Mixon within the coming weeks. He is at all times a risk to hit this over prop in only one catch resulting from his explosiveness as effectively, however I anticipate a minimum of 3-4 receptions from the 26-year-old.

At 20.5, this quantity is simply too low for Mixon. According to our Action Labs information, Mixon is projected for twenty-four.5 receiving yards, a 4.9% edge to the present quantity.

Bet Now at FanDuel: Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards


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Pick
Tua Tagovailoa Over 23.5 Completions
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET

Cody Goggin: Tua Tagovailoa is certainly enjoying the very best soccer of his NFL profession proper now. The Dolphins are 3-0 and have impressed with their passing assault up to now this season. Despite being outplayed by the Bills this previous weekend, the Dolphins are nonetheless a very good workforce and deserve credit score for popping out of that recreation with a win.

A big a part of their success this season will not be primarily based on the addition of Tyreek Hill or the effectivity of their passing recreation, but in addition the quantity at which the Dolphins have thrown the ball this season. Miami is passing at the next price than can be anticipated in each scenario.

Overall, the Dolphins rank fourth within the NFL in cross frequency over anticipated on early downs this season.

Tagovailoa had 33 cross makes an attempt in opposition to the Patriots in a recreation that Miami performed from forward more often than not, and he threw 50 instances in opposition to the Ravens when enjoying from behind. Tagovailoa solely had 18 passing makes an attempt in opposition to the Bills, however this was resulting from Buffalo controlling the ball for a lot of the recreation, operating 90 offensive performs to Miami’s 39.

Mike McDaniel desires to throw to Hill and Jaylen Waddle usually, with these quick passes will be an extension of the Dolphins’ run recreation. I believe that Tagovailoa shall be throwing the ball usually tonight, and for that motive I like him to go over his complete of 23.5 passes accomplished.


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