Chargers vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions: Our 5 Best Bets

Making Chargers vs. Chiefs picks is not simple, contemplating how excessive individuals are on each groups.

We have two potential MVP quarterbacks enjoying in the most effective division within the NFL going through off in one of many league’s greatest atmospheres. Thursday Night Football won’t get higher than this.

It’s not going to be this juicy each week, however we’ll respect Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes whereas we will, particularly in primetime. Both the Chargers and Chiefs are 1-0 and sit atop the AFC West proper now. It may solely be Week 2, however this one feels extra necessary than most different video games this weekend will.

Six of our betting analysts have a greatest wager for the sport, and two of them are on the identical wager. Check out their breakdowns and picks beneath.

NFL Odds & Picks


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Pick
Justin Herbert Under 16.5 Rushing Yards
Best Book
Time
8:15 pm ET

Chris Raybon: This quantity is just too excessive even when factoring in that Herbert is extra seemingly than to not have zero knee downs on this sport on condition that the Chargers are the underdog.

Here’s how Herbert’s profession breaks down in regard to this prop:

  • Under 16.5 in 23 of 33 video games (70%)
  • Under 15.5 in 21 of 33 (64%)

And this is the way it breaks down particularly in losses:

  • Under 16.5 in 12 of 17 (71%)
  • Under 15.5 in 11 of 17 (65%)

Herbert did squeak by this quantity with 16 dashing yards in every of the 2 conferences in opposition to the Chiefs final season, however Los Angeles spent the offseason getting sooner and extra athletic on protection and will have the ability to hold Herbert within the pocket on this matchup.

In Week 1, the Kansas City protection allowed just one scramble to Kyler Murray, who averaged 2.4 scrambles per sport in his profession.

Herbert averages 6.8 yards per scramble in his profession, so to clear this prop he would seemingly want three scrambles — a feat he is completed in solely 10 of 33 video games (30%). If not, he’d seemingly want two scrambles, plus 1-2 designed runs, and no knee downs.

Of course, there’ll all the time be these occasions while you get unfortunate and he pops a future. When you map out his path to 16 or extra dashing yards, although, it is simple to see why he is gone underneath this quantity in practically two-thirds of his profession video games.

There’s additionally some hidden worth right here if the Chargers pull off the upset and Herbert does in reality take a number of knee downs. I’ve Herbert projected for 13.0 yards even when he takes zero knee downs.

I’d wager this down to fifteen.5.

Pick
Anderson: Under 54.5
Best Book
Time
8:15 pm ET

Brandon Anderson: Oh child, we received ourselves a superb one on Amazon Prime. Pat Mahomes appeared like his MVP self in Week 1, and Herbert wasn’t dangerous himself. This division rivalry has been absolute hearth in recent times, and the winner Thursday will get a leg up within the brutal AFC West and possibly turns into the early MVP favourite.

The Chiefs offense appeared simply high-quality with out Tyreek Hill, racking up 44 factors and an absurd 9.2 yards per move, however the Chargers overhauled their protection and are constructed to remove the deep ball and cease the move underneath Brandon Staley. Could LA’s protection be the distinction? Or will Kansas City’s new WR weapons open up extra of the sector with LA taking away the deep ball?

The Chargers seem like they will be with out two actually necessary gamers, CB JC Jackson and WR Keenan Allen. I favored Chiefs -2.5 in The Lookahead final week, however now the road has moved to mirror the damage report and killed the worth.

This is a brilliant enjoyable sport and everybody expects fireworks, however the most effective play may be on the underside. The books have priced this whole at 54.5, and that is an enormous quantity, particularly on a brief week. When the whole is over 51, Thursday unders are 17-8-1 ATS all-time (68%). When that whole is over 54 like this one, the underneath is undefeated at 7-0, masking by 13.8 factors per sport. It’s no enjoyable betting in opposition to scoring and it will in all probability be a sweat. The two video games final 12 months sat at 45 and 48 factors with 140 seconds left in every, then added 23 extra factors mixed in these ultimate couple of minutes.

Still, the underneath is the best play with a line this excessive. If you wish to play a aspect, the Chargers +184 moneyline (implied 35%) is fairly tasty. And should you can wait and play stay, you may simply wish to seize an underdog ML both means in a sport that ought to be backwards and forwards with loads of scoring.

Let’s hope this one lives as much as the billing. I’d not wager this quantity beneath 54.


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Pick
Hunter: Under 54.5
Best Book
Time
8:15 pm ET

Simon Hunter: As Brandon talked about above, there’s an enormous development that leads me to imagine this whole is just too excessive.

I do not belief what I’ve seen from Herbert fairly but. He’s nonetheless attempting to push the ball down the sector an excessive amount of as a substitute of taking what the protection is giving him.

Allen is out and has been Herbert’s go-to goal on third downs since he took over because the Chargers’ beginning QB.

The Chargers protection, although, appeared wonderful in opposition to the Raiders. That unit may give Patrick Mahomes issues by making use of stress with solely 4 move rushers. I see Andy Reid desirous to gradual this sport down by sustaining lengthy drives.

I’d wager this quantity all the way down to 52.5.


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Pick
Chargers 1H +3
Best Book
(*5*)
Time
8:15 pm ET

Kody Malstrom: Surprise, shock. The Chiefs offense remains to be elite after an offseason of hypothesis with the departure of Tyreek Hill. Mahomes placed on a spectacular efficiency in Week 1, throwing for 360 yards and 5 touchdowns whereas new weapons Juju and MVS mixed for 123 yards on 10 receptions.

Herbert made his mark as nicely, however the offense took an enormous blow when Allen went down injured on Sunday. Escaping with a slender victory over the Raiders 24-19, it was the protection that made the distinction. Khalil Mack debuted with three sacks and a strip sack within the ultimate drive whereas the protection picked off Carr thrice.

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Will the protection present up once more in opposition to a extra cellular and elite quarterback in Mahomes? They could have their fingers full because the Chiefs offensive line didn’t permit a single sack in Week 1, an space the Chargers might want to generate stress to drive Mahomes into making errors and limiting the offense.

I imagine that the Chargers protection will give the Chiefs matches early on with Mack and co getting stress within the backfield, maintaining this shut early on. The lack of Allen could also be an excessive amount of to beat for the total sport because the Chiefs make changes, making me hold my pursuits in the direction of the primary half unfold. Take the Chargers at no decrease than +3 to cowl the primary half with a possible second half play on the Chiefs.


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Pick
Mike Williams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
(*5*)
Time
8:15 pm ET

Charlie DiSturco: This is the proper purchase low spot on Mike Williams.

The 6-foot-4 receiver was held to 10 yards on two receptions — 4 targets — within the season opener in opposition to Las Vegas. But I’m not nervous.

For starters, Williams ran a route on 91 % of dropbacks, and led the staff in whole snaps. With Allen (hamstring) now out, Williams’ manufacturing will skyrocket because the go-to possibility for Herbert.

This is a sport the place we may see Williams’ targets hit double digits, prefer it has a number of occasions earlier than.

If you might be nonetheless nervous about his 4 objectives in Week 1, it solely occurred twice final season. And in these two video games following these dud performances, Williams erupted for a mixed 17 receptions on 33 targets, 284 yards and three touchdowns.

Aside from Austin Ekeler, there is not any confirmed receiver on this Chargers offense aside from Williams. He’s the important thing to the Chargers’ success in opposition to Kansas City and I anticipate an enormous efficiency out of the veteran on Thursday night time.

Don’t shrink back from his prop whole, even should you assume it’s kind of excessive at 66.5 yards. I’m shopping for all of the Williams inventory getting into Week 2.


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Pick
Josh Palmer Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
Time
8:15 pm ET

Sam Farley: Allen can be an enormous loss for the Chargers, but it surely’s a possibility for Josh Palmer, who’s prone to eat up these targets.

Palmer was quiet within the Chargers’ victory over the Raiders catching three of his 4 targets for simply 5 yards. Don’t let that put you off betting his Receiving Yards line although.

Allen missed only one sport final 12 months, Week 14’s sport in opposition to the Giants. Palmer went off in that sport, hauling in 5 of seven targets for 66 yards and a TD.

After that sport Palmer was an even bigger half within the sport plan getting 21 targets within the subsequent 4 video games. While he did not do a lot on Sunday it is value remembering that he nonetheless received focused 4 occasions.

With Allen prone to miss this sport it ought to open up extra alternative for the previous Tennessee wideout to point out why he was drafted within the third spherical final 12 months. Even with DeAndre Carter prone to line up within the slot extra incessantly with Allen out, there can be loads of targets for Palmer to thrive.


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