College basketball early overreactions: Five takeaways from the first two weeks of the 2022-23 season

We’re two weeks and alter into the faculty basketball season which implies we will formally glean some info from the outcomes and knowledge we have up to now seen and amassed. Whether or not all of it’s sticky and prescriptive might be (undoubtedly!) nonetheless to be decided, however opinions are however being formed on what we all know up to now and what we predict we all know up to now. So why not put pen to paper and dole out some small-sample overreactions? (So ​​we will, inevitably, look again on this in just a few months and see simply how proper we had been.)

Most groups have performed 4, possibly 5 video games, so so much of these are topic to vary, of course. And groups can and sometimes do change and evolve all through the season as injured gamers return, new groups familiarize themselves and younger gamers develop. But . . typically early-season outcomes are extra predictive than we lend credence to. And if they’re. . . effectively, that is going to be an issue for just a few groups (and a boon for just a few others.)

Let’s bounce proper in and begin with some lows. You cannot spell most of the phrase “low” with out “Louisville,” so the Cardinals are up first.

Lousy Louisville is the worst crew in the ACC

It’s been so dangerous for Louisville this season that I believe, so long as we’re doing early-season overreactions, one may moderately simply lower off “in the ACC” from that prediction and roll with Louisville is the worst crew. Kenny Payne’s tenure with the Cardinals is off to a depressing begin. Missing out on five-star recruit DJ Wagner was only a style of how issues have been on the courtroom. With an 80-54 blowout loss to No. 9 Arkansas in the Maui Invitational on Monday the Cardinals fell to 0-4 on the season, their worst begin in additional than eight many years (!!).

On Tuesday it acquired worse. Louisville had its lowest offensive output in 74 years in a 70-38 loss to No. 21 Texas Tech.

There are myriad the explanation why the Cardinals usually are not basketball crew proper now, however No. 1 on the listing proper now’s his incapacity to take care of the ball. Louisville ranked lifeless final amongst all main convention applications in assist-to-turnover ratio now with 72 turnovers and 31 assists on the season after a surprising 22 turnovers and 4 assists in opposition to Arkansas.

And what’s subsequent for the 0-5 Cardinals? The schedule does them no favors. Louisville performs in the seventh-place sport of the Maui Invitational on Wednesday in opposition to Cincinnati then embarks on this difficult schedule:

Nov. 29 no 23 Maryland
Dec. 4 miami
Dec. 10 at Florida State
Dec. 14 Western Kentucky
Dec. 17 Florida A&M
Dec. 20 Lipscomb
Dec. 22 at NC State
Dec. 31 at No. 15 Kentucky

Louisville began 1940-41 with 11 straight losses and has the distinct chance of being 0-10 this season heading into its residence sport vs. the Rattlers. But Payne’s debut season is off to a Payne-ful begin the Cardinals.

Villanova will not be the similar with out Jay Wright

Put this in the class of effectively, yeah, duh, however Villanova, because it seems, does not fairly have the similar hum it did underneath Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright that it does up to now underneath his alternative, Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats are 2-2 on the season with losses to Temple and No. 12 Michigan State. Their model stays the similar – gradual as ever with a plodding tempo to grind groups down – however their outcomes are up to now blended.

Not having five-star freshman Cam Whitmore and veteran star Justin Moore, each of whom are coming off accidents, is critical and half of the context to why it has began slowly. But Nova seems like a tier under No. 10 Creighton and No. 20 UConn in the early going. We’ll see if issues change as convention play approaches but it surely may simply be a down yr as the Wildcats scrap in a brand new period however this yr may carry with it some rising pains the program hasn’t needed to cope with lately.

The Big 12 is massive canine (once more)

There was cause to be bullish in the preseason about the SEC and Big Ten doubtlessly taking down the mighty Big 12 as the finest convention in faculty hoops. But up to now that optimism has been blunted with an enormous keep on with the Big 12’s finest already trying prefer it may also double as faculty basketball’s finest. Texas is 4-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and No. 1 in the CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 on the heels of blowing out then-No. 2 Gonzaga no 3 Kansas is 4-0 after taking down No. 8 Dukes. And each No. 7 Baylor and No. 21 Texas Tech, regardless of one stumble every, have seemed nearly as good or possibly higher than marketed.

Meanwhile in the SEC, massive canine No. 15 Kentucky has seemed tough and No. 22 Tennessee fell flat in opposition to hot-and-cold Colorado, and in the Big Ten, No. 11 Indiana, No. 12 Michigan State, No. 16 Illinois, No. 23 Maryland and No. 25 Iowa, have all been spectacular up to now however no crew or groups have fairly been nearly as good as the assortment the Big 12 has at the high.

Virginia is the class of the ACC

Preseason No. 1 North Carolina has accomplished nothing to technically lose its rating – it has gained every of its 4 video games on the season – but it surely definitely has accomplished nothing to essentially validate that rating, both. Against three groups ranked outdoors the high 80 at KenPom.com, UNC has a scoring margin that is 54th nationally with closer-than-it-should’ve-been wins in opposition to each UNC Wilmington and Gardner-Webb.

Meanwhile, No. 5 Virginia’s preseason buzz has spilled over into early-season success with one of the most spectacular opening two weeks highlighted by wins in Vegas final week over each Baylor and Illinois. With Duke not at full power but and UNC wobbling early, the Cavaliers seem like contenders as soon as once more underneath Tony Bennett and look like the class of the ACC till additional discover.

Big Ten exceeding its lofty expectations

There had been simply three Big Ten groups ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 – Indiana, Michigan and Illinois, which was fewer than the Big 12 and SEC – however a whopping six groups from the convention landed inside the AP Top 25’s newest rankings on Monday. That’s greater than some other main convention. Its rise has been bolstered by robust early-season showings from Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue and Iowa, all of which had been unranked in the preseason however are a mixed 15-1 to begin the season with wins over Kentucky and Villanova (to Michigan State ), Saint Louis and Miami (to Maryland), Marquette (to Purdue) and Seton Hall (to Iowa).

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