Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins

NFL Week 11 – Some massive video games result in some massive strikes up the Football Outsiders DVOA scores desk this week. But a few of these massive wins weren’t fairly so massive on the scoreboard. Three video games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, however considered one of them won’t be apparent.

Let’s begin with the apparent massive wins. San Francisco will get 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday evening dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. That strikes the 49ers up 5 spots from eleventh to sixth this week. San Francisco is presently eleventh on offense and seventh on protection. The 49ers offense appears to be like higher if you happen to take out the Week 1 recreation performed in a monsoon towards the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback as an alternative of Jimmy Garoppolo. Without that recreation, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which might rank seventh in the league. (Take out their protection from that recreation, and the 49ers drop barely from seventh to eighth.) San Francisco’s two finest offensive performances of the yr have come in the final three video games.

Another massive winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. That strikes the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. In reality, the Cowboys are actually No. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the significance of early-season video games. That’s as a result of their offense was so dangerous in Week 1. They cannot blame that on Cooper Rush; that was Dak Prescott beginning in that recreation. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would transfer from 14th to seventh in DVOA.

The Cowboys are actually forward of the Eagles for the NFC East lead in DVOA though the Eagles are nonetheless two video games forward the place it actually issues, the win column. The Eagles drop to fourth after an in depth escape towards the Colts. It’s additionally attention-grabbing to notice that the Eagles not have the simplest schedule in the division; the Cowboys’ remaining schedule is simpler than Philadelphia’s by common DVOA of opponent. The Christmas Eve matchup between these groups takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race is not over but. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report nonetheless provides Philadelphia a 75% probability to win.)

The third large winner of the week? That can be the New England Patriots, regardless that they wanted a last-second punt return landing to keep away from going to time beyond regulation with the New York Jets. The Patriots outgained the Jets on common 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. They additionally ran extra performs, 59 to 49, that means that in whole they outgained the Jets by practically 200 yards. The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this recreation. A Jets win would have been an enormous reversal in accordance with Post-Game Win Expectancy. The Patriots ended up with a PGWE of 99.9%, and even if you happen to take away the punt return landing they nonetheless have a PGWE of 98%. The Patriots moved as much as first in protection and general improved by practically 5 share factors of DVOA, though that solely means one place in the rankings from twelfth to eleventh.

One different victory that is perhaps a bit bigger than anticipated belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in time beyond regulation. The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to five.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice however recovered each. The Raiders transfer up one spot to twenty sixth however the Broncos drop three spots from twenty second to twenty fifth.

In reality, the losers of those video games might have moved down much more than the winners moved up. The Minnesota Vikings drop seven spots in DVOA, from seventeenth to twenty fourth. Yes, if you happen to’re asking, they’re the worst 8-2 group ever by DVOA. The Jets drop from ninth to thirteenth. The Cardinals drop from twenty ninth to thirty first.

Let’s Look at Remaining Schedules

Our whole DVOA stats web page lists every group’s remaining schedule primarily based on common DVOA of opponent. The Cincinnati Bengals have by far the toughest remaining schedule, adopted by the Bears and Jaguars. The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have the simplest remaining schedules.

However, it is also potential to separate up remaining schedules by offense and protection or cross and run to see which groups and models may look higher or worse over the remainder of the season because of who’s on the opposite facet of the sector. So let’s try this and have a look.

For our take a look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 as a result of I do know that quite a lot of readers can be curious in regards to the fantasy soccer implications right here. When we take a look at remaining offensive schedules, I’m going to incorporate Week 18.

Before breaking down every of those classes, we have got to speak in regards to the Los Angeles Chargers. Comparing their schedule up to now to their remaining schedule is completely wild.

The Chargers have performed the simplest schedule of cross defenses up to now, averaging 11.1% DVOA. Yet their schedule of cross defenses will get even simpler the remainder of the best way — if we do not embody their Week 18 recreation with Denver. For Weeks 12-17, the common cross protection confronted by the Chargers permits 14.3% DVOA.

The Chargers have additionally performed the simplest schedule of run defenses up to now. However, this schedule will get a lot, a lot more durable the remainder of the best way. If we pass over the Broncos in Week 18, the Chargers have the the toughest remaining schedule of opposing run defenses. The Chargers’ schedule is crammed with groups which can be higher towards the run than the cross, together with the Raiders (32/22), the Titans (13/1), the Dolphins (29/9), the Colts (14/6) , and the Rams (26/5). The one group they play which is considerably higher towards the cross is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which will not matter when you’ve got Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs.

The Chargers’ schedule is much more enjoyable if you take a look at the offenses they face. So far, solely the Pittsburgh Steelers have confronted a more durable schedule of opposing offenses. For the remainder of the season, the Chargers face the the simplest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! Sure, the Dolphins have an excellent offense, however 4 of Los Angeles’ seven remaining opponents are in the underside eight for offensive DVOA.

So the Chargers go from taking part in a schedule that is been very simple for his or her offense and exhausting for his or her protection to a schedule that can be very simple for his or her passing recreation and protection however exhausting for his or her operating recreation.

Here’s a take a look at another groups on the extremes or about to have an actual change in the standard of their opponents on one facet of the ball or the opposite:

Pass Defense (no Week 18)

The New York Jets have confronted the toughest schedule of opposing cross defenses up to now this yr. Their remaining opponents rank thirtieth in cross protection. This just isn’t a suggestion to select up Zach Wilson in fantasy soccer, however you’ll discover he is obtained an enormous hole between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats web page.

Pittsburgh and Green Bay have performed the second- and third-ranked schedules of opposing cross defenses up to now. Those schedules rank twenty third and twenty fourth in Weeks 12-17. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy soccer comeback, maybe?

Baltimore (6 up to now, 25 to go) and Washington (9 up to now, 31 to go) additionally face a lot simpler schedules of opposing cross defenses the remainder of the best way.

On the opposite hand, the Arizona Cardinals have had it simple up to now with the No. 28 schedule of opposing cross defenses. From Week 12 to 17, they face the toughest schedule of opposing cross defenses. Other groups the place it will get more durable embody the New York Giants (23 up to now, 4 to go), the Tennessee Titans (21 up to now, 6 to go), and the Cincinnati Bengals (18 up to now, 5 to go).

Run Defense (no Week 18)

We went over the Chargers already however quite a few different groups see their schedule of opposing run defenses get a lot more durable from right here on out. The 5 groups with the simplest run protection schedules up to now all have top-10 run protection schedules from now via Week 17. That contains the Seahawks (31 up to now, 5 to go), the 49ers (30 up to now, 7 to go) , the Jaguars (29 up to now, 9 to go), and the Falcons (28 up to now, 6 to go). The schedule additionally will get more durable for the Giants (26 up to now, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 up to now, 3 to go).

The hardest schedule of run defenses up to now belongs to the Packers, who’ve a mean schedule the remainder of the best way. But different groups do see their schedule of run defenses get a lot simpler. That begins with the Chiefs (2 up to now, 23 to go) but additionally the Rams (6 up to now, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 up to now, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 up to now, 28 to go).

Offense (contains Week 18)

Except for the Chargers, who we already coated above, the adjustments aren’t as giant relating to the standard of offenses confronted.

The high three schedules of offenses confronted up to now belong to the Steelers, Chargers and Bills. Pittsburgh and Buffalo face common schedules of offenses the remainder of the best way.

The 5 groups which have confronted the simplest schedules of offenses up to now (Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans) have schedules the remainder of the best way that rank someplace between tenth and 18th.

The greatest change aside from the Chargers belongs to the Houston Texans. So far, the Texans’ schedule of opposing offenses has ranked twenty sixth. The remainder of the best way, it ranks second. Only the Cincinnati Bengals (twelfth up to now) have a more durable schedule of opposing offenses for the remainder of the season.

Another massive change belongs to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have performed the No. 5 schedule of opposing offenses up to now. They play the No. 28 schedule the remainder of the best way, a lot simpler. Other groups with simple schedules for his or her defenses the remainder of the best way embody the Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, and, as famous above, Chargers. Alliteration!

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This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 via 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down each single play and compares a group’s efficiency to the league common primarily based on scenario in order to find out worth above common (defined additional right here). Click right here for the complete desk.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and efficiency indoors and take into account all fumbles, stored or misplaced, as equal worth. Opponent changes are actually at full energy. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for kind of stadium (heat, chilly, dome, Denver) and week of season. As all the time, optimistic numbers signify extra factors so DEFENSE is healthier when it’s NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a system that mixes our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a extra correct projection of how a group will play the remainder of the season. DAVE is presently 16% preseason forecast and 84% precise efficiency for groups with 11 video games, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% precise efficiency for groups with 10 video games.

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