Explaining the Mariners’ magic number to reach the playoffs

With 162 video games in the baseball season, it is easy to suppose that a few of them do not matter.

But that is September, they usually undoubtedly do It’s why watching the Mariners on this final stretch has been troublesome for followers. Because that is when profitable issues most and — after going 4-6 over their final 10 video games — they have not been doing a lot of it currently.

There are 15 video games left in the common season, and rather a lot can nonetheless occur.

Right now, the Mariners maintain the third and ultimate AL wild card spot and sit 5 video games forward of Baltimore and 5.5 forward of the White Sox in the wild card standings. The Mariners maintain the season-series tiebreaker over the Orioles so if the groups end tied, Seattle would get in. The White Sox, in the meantime, maintain the tiebreaker over the Mariners, making Chicago a crew to maintain an in depth eye on.

Despite their latest scuffles, the Mariners’ playoff odds have not budged a lot. Fangraphs offers them a 99.3% likelihood to make the postseason with a 3.8% shot to win the World Series, whereas FiveThirtyEight has them at a larger than 99% likelihood with a 2% likelihood at the title.

So what does that imply for the Mariners and the way far off are they from clinching a playoff berth for the first time in 21 years? Well, that brings us to the magic number, or the number of video games till a playoff spot is assured.

The magic number is calculated by taking a look at the number of video games a crew wants to both win or have its closest competitor lose. It’s decided utilizing the number of video games left and subtracting your wins and opponent losses.

MLB makes use of this method: Games remaining +1 – (Losses by second place crew – losses by first place crew)

Let’s take a look at it when it comes to the ultimate AL wild card spot.

Now we all know the number of video games remaining (15). The Orioles (the second place crew) have 71 losses, and the Mariners (the first place crew) have 66. Using some easy PEMDAS math, we get the following.

Magic number = 15 + 1 – (5) = 11

besides that this is not the actual magic number as a result of the Mariners maintain the tiebreaker over the Orioles. It’s like there’s an extra loss for the O’s in the event that they had been to end with the identical file.

Real magic number = 15 + 1 – (6) = 10

And you thought you’d by no means use algebra in actual life after highschool.

Too lengthy, did not learn? The magic number for the Mariners is 10.

Every time the Mariners win, that number decreases. Every time the Orioles lose that number decreases. Now if the White Sox overtake the O’s, we’ll have to substitute the White Sox’s losses for the Orioles’. We can cross that bridge after we get there.

Now, let’s get to some energy rankings.

SI.com: No. 10

The Athletic: No. 9

We’re all bored with listening to about the Mariners’ postseason drought. Jerry Dipoto most of all, which is why he is most likely sleeping about 90 minutes an evening as his crew tries to make good on a rebuild that began in 2018.

I anticipated the Mariners to win 90+ video games this season, however not fairly like this. I figured Robbie Ray could be excellent after transferring from Toronto to Seattle, and he is been nice at T-Mobile Park (2.73 ERA). But he is been fairly dangerous on the street (5.08 ERA). Their massive offseason commerce was supposed to be about Jesse Winker, however in future years it will most likely be often known as “the Eugenio Suárez commerce.”

Suárez is out with an injured finger, which is not nice. But the ending schedule is fairly favorable: A’s, Royals, Rangers, A’s, Tigers. No excuses.

CBS Sports: No. 11

I did not even point out the Mariners in the intro, however it wasn’t an oversight. It’s as a result of the remainder of their schedule is pathetically weak (A’s, Royals, Rangers, A’s and Tigers). Should be clean crusing. Then once more, they simply misplaced three of 4 to the Angels.

Bleacher Report: No. 12

The Mariners had been dealt a blow once they misplaced three of 4 of their latest collection towards the Los Angeles Angels, however they nonetheless entered play on Tuesday with a five-game cushion over the Baltimore Orioles for the third AL wild-card spot. Rookie George Kirby has a 2.03 ERA in 10 begins since the All-Star break as he makes his case for a spot in the potential postseason rotation.

MLB.com: No. 9

USA Today: No. 9

Eugenio Suarez heads to the IL with a damaged proper index finger.

Correction: For the magic number calculation to use the White Sox’s losses as an alternative of the Orioles’, the White Sox would have to overtake the Orioles, not the Mariners, as said in an earlier model of this story.

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