Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and daily downgrades to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Notes: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday’s MLB Games
By Derek Carty
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Spencer Strider has been nothing short of dominant this season (13.9 K / 9, 2.45 ERA, 2.60 xFIP), but he’s currently rostered in just 49% of ESPN leagues. His leash has been getting extended and he went over 100 pitches (106) for the first time in his professional career in his last start. THE BAT X projects him as the 21st-best overall pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis. The matchup against the San Francisco Giants isn’t perfect, but Strider still projects as the third-best overall option of the day. Grab him if he’s still available and don’t let him go.
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If Strider has already been scooped up, Rich Hill (6% rostered) is very likely to be available to you. He faces the lowly Detroit Tigers today in the only game with temperatures below 70 degrees, giving him one of the best matchups you can get. He’s not the pitcher he used to be and doesn’t go very deep into games anymore, but this premium matchup still marks him as the sixth-best pitcher today and the best among those that are widely available.
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If you’re looking for a streamer that may be worth holding long-term (and Strider is gone), Roansy Contreras would be your guy. He’s one of the better pitching prospects in baseball (throwing 97 mph) and has looked good (3.84 xFIP) in his eight major-league appearances, five of which have been starts. He gets a quality matchup against a bottom-five offense (the Chicago Cubs) who are taking a big park hit going into PNC Park. He’s worth rostering longterm in medium-depth leagues.
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If you have Dylan Cease on your roster, you may want to consider keeping him on your bench today. He faces an elite, high-powered Toronto Blue Jays offense in the game’s best park for homers on a 91-degree day. THE BAT X projects a 4.74 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in this spot, so unless that sounds appealing, you should sit this one out. Blue Jays hitters are actually quite sneaky, projecting as one of the top offenses of the day despite facing an elite pitcher.
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Seven offenses project for over five runs today, according to THE BAT X, and the most surprising (and most widely available) of them is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They face Chicago’s Matt Swarmer and the weak Cubs bullpen in 89-degree weather. Outside of Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, the whole team is basically available in most leagues. Top prospect Oneil Cruz (7%) was just recalled from the minors, Jack Suwinski has been hot (1%), and the likes of Michael Chavis (1%) and Daniel Vogelbach (1%) are strong options as well.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Josh Naylor (CLE, RF – 39%) and Joe Ryan
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Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B – 2%) vs. Matt Swarmer
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Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B – 50%) vs. Jack Flaherty
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Jack Suwinski (PIT, RF – 2%) vs. Swarmer
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Gary Sanchez (MIN, C – 43%) vs. Civale
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Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B – 8%) vs. Tony Gonsolin
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Ramon Laureano (OAK, CF – 9%) vs. Marco Gonzales
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Juan Yepez (STL, 1B – 7%) at Chi Chi Gonzalez
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Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF – 50%) vs. Kevin Gausman
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Gio Urshela (MIN, 3B – 23%) vs. Civale
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
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Daulton Varsho (ARI, C – 95%) at Sean Manaea
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Santiago Espinal (TOR, 3B – 53%) and Dylan Cease
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Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B – 59%) and Daniel Castano
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Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B – 62%) vs. Zac Gallen
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Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B – 67%) and Jose Urquidy
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Thairo Estrada (SF, SS – 62%) at Spencer Strider
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Jurickson Profar (SD, 1B – 90%) vs. Gallen
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Brandon Crawford (SF, SS – 50%) at Strider
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Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF – 76%) vs. Kyle Gibson
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Randy Arozarena (TB, LF – 92%) vs. Nestor Cortes
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Tyler Mahle Pitching Outs: Over / Under 16.5 (-135 / + 100)
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Mahle putting up 14.8 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 38.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $ 23.39.
Notes: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $ 1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $ 25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $ 25 in profit on your $ 100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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The Dodgers projected lineup grades out as the best of all teams on the slate today.
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The Dodgers have been the sixth-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
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Great American Ball Park ranks as the No. 1 ballpark in Major League Baseball for home runs, per THE BAT projection system.
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Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weatherman calls for the third-hottest temperature on the slate today at 91 °.