Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ‘Don’t Wanna Draft’ list features a risky first-round pick and more

There are some gamers Fantasy managers simply should not really feel too good about.

You know the kinds — ones with crimson flags. Concerns. Warts. Risks. unhealthy vibes Players who you are not as assured in as most people.

You would possibly draft them in the event that they fall previous their Average Draft Position, however that may be the one approach you may take them.

It’s vital to know who you are not comfy with earlier than you draft. The final thing you wish to do is notice you do not like a participant after you draft them. Take the time and undergo a rating list and cross-out the names of gamers you simply aren’t digging.

That’s what I’ve achieved with the eleven gamers under. These are the gamers I do not wish to draft this 12 months until they by some means get to a level the place I really feel like they’re a worth.

They’re listed so as of their FantasyExecs full-PPR ADP as of July 28, 2022.*

Christian McCaffrey (RB2, 2.6)

If you had been out there for a used automobile and you had been supplied one which had damaged down on the aspect of the street 5 totally different occasions over the previous two years, you would not even assume twice about shopping for it. So why purchase McCaffrey? Because he performs a ton of snaps? Expect that to get trimmed — even his coaches have realized to not lean AS a lot on him anymore. He would possibly even lose some goal-line touches to D’Onta Foreman. Because he posts a ton of Fantasy factors? He did, however even when we cherry-pick from the (solely) 5 video games he completed in 2021, he averaged 22.6 PPR factors. That’s price a Round 1 pick however not a top-3 pick. Because he is nonetheless in a nice scenario? Uh, possibly not. Ben McAdoo by some means luckboxed his approach into calling performs for the Panthers; the final time we noticed him he fizzled quick with the Giants. Baker Mayfield could possibly be a serviceable resolution at quarterback however he is not assured to over-target McCaffrey, plus Carolina’s schedule is projected to be robust early and robust within the Fantasy playoffs. Smart Fantasy drafters will make a list of gamers they will take earlier than McCaffrey — those that like to take probabilities may not have any names on that list, however those that perceive the significance of nailing a top-3 pick ought to give you sufficient names to push McCaffrey to no less than fourth or fifth total.

I’d take him: Fifth total.

I’d relatively have: Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris

Javonte Williams (RB11, 19.4)

Everything’s modified in Denver besides the operating again room. Melvin Gordon nonetheless figures to be the one taking the most important portion of labor away from Williams every week, though the brand new teaching employees in Denver most likely will not get away the abacus to verify it is an even-Steven cut up just like the final regime did. But there will probably be a cut up however, which splits the hearts of Fantasy managers who simply wish to see Williams attain his dominant potential. That’s not the one roadblock — Russell Wilson’s arrival ought to push the Broncos’ move price larger than the 56% they’d in 2021. And, Wilson is a downfield passer, not a dinker-dunker, which hurts all of Denver’s operating backs’ targets . Rushers who get taken in Round 2 do not share the ball a lot and are normally robust contributors within the move recreation. Williams is not anticipated to be both of these issues, which is why he is significantly better off as a mid-third-rounder.

I’d take him: thirtieth total (Round 3)

I’d relatively have: Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery

Cam Akers (RB17, 31.4)

Some discouraging stats for you on Akers: He had seven runs of 12-plus yards over 145 carries (a 4.8% explosion price), an 18.6% averted sort out price, 27 runs of zero or damaging yards (18.6% of all carries), and one landing on six goal-to-go carries from contained in the 4 with a fumble. These aren’t his numbers from his miracle return late final 12 months — these are his numbers from 2020, earlier than he popped his Achilles. And you higher consider his numbers from late 2021 aren’t nearly as good as these. Fantasy managers aren’t incorrect to be in love with whoever runs within the Rams offense, however Akers has sparsely confirmed to be explosive and have to be fed heavy quantity as a way to come by for large stats. For me to take him at his ADP, I must make sure that he’ll get fed, and/or make sure he is regained more explosiveness that I bear in mind him having. That’s a tall order contemplating what his legs have gone by and what the Rams offense figures to be shifting ahead. I’m going to let different folks take the possibility on him.

I’d take him: sixtieth total (Round 5)

I’d relatively have: Antonio Gibson, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs

Patrick Mahomes (QB2, 35.0)

Mahomes has completed fourth or worse amongst quarterbacks in Fantasy factors per recreation in two of his previous three seasons. If you draft him because the second quarterback off the board then it means you take him near his ceiling. Losing one of many NFL’s most ridiculous playmakers in Tyreek Hill is a large downside — Hill accounted for 23.6% of Mahomes’ targets, 24.8% of his receptions, 24.9% of his yards and 24.3% of his touchdowns. Asking as many as three new receivers — JuJu Smith Schuster, rookie Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling — to switch these numbers is not a tall order, however getting on the identical web page with three totally different guys is a lot totally different than moving into a groove with one. And whereas Moore and MVS have fleet toes, they’re simply not as quick as Hill. No one ought to thoughts drafting Mahomes, however nobody ought to wish to take him because the second (or, worse, first) quarterback off the board. A Round 3 pick feels too quickly, too.

I’d take him: forty sixth total (Round 4)

I’d relatively have: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, possibly Lamar Jackson

Diontae Johnson (WR14, 41.2)

We’re about to see a new Steelers offense. leaner Quicker. Less keen to allow an outsized, over-aged future-Hall of Fame quarterback. With Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers checked in with a 63% move price in 2020 and 2021, which helped Johnson see 10.1 targets per recreation. They’re anticipated to run more usually and unfold the ball round more evenly with Mitchell Trubisky underneath middle. That’s unhealthy for Johnson since it has been strictly quantity that is catapulted the wideout into uncommon Fantasy territory. Among wideouts with no less than 50 catches in 2021, Johnson ranked thirty second in end-zone targets (7), thirty eighth in yards per reception (10.9), forty first in explosive play price (12.1%) and twenty ninth in catch price (63.3%), which is wild contemplating his common depth of goal was a quick 8.52 yards. Last 12 months, solely 4 receivers within the top-20 in PPR per-game common had lower than 7.5 targets per recreation. All 4 had no less than eight touchdowns. That’s what Johnson should match as a way to make up for a lower in targets, and although he scored eight occasions final 12 months, the quarterback modifications figures to harm his probabilities for a repeat.

I’d take him: 54th total (Round 5)

I’d relatively have: Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf

JK Dobbins (RB23, 49.4)

How large of a position do you assume Dobbins may have? As a rookie in 2020, Dobbins discovered common enjoying time within the Ravens’ ultimate 9 however nonetheless commanded solely 46.3% of the operating again carries and averaged 12.9 touches per recreation. For him to realize more, he’ll need to outshine the remainder of the Ravens’ backs, which is hard to do whenever you begin coaching camp on the PUP list and have not performed professional ball in over a 12 months. Dobbins additionally figures to go away you hanging within the receiving recreation (24 targets earned in 2020; Ravens operating backs totaled 15.1% of Jackson’s targets from 2021). To take him within the Round 4/5 flip is not that egregious, however there are different backs who ought to safe more work that you must need forward of him.

I’d take him: 57th total (late Round 5)

I’d relatively have: Elijah Mitchell, AJ Dillon

Joe Burrow (QB5, 60.8)

I really feel like the category nerd telling you to keep away from the best child in class, however there’s a lot hype round Burrow that it is artificially inflating his ADP. The appendectomy in the beginning of coaching camp actually is not as a lot of a concern because the 20.1 factors per recreation he averaged between Weeks 1 and 15 final 12 months, or the 17.5 he averaged within the NFL playoffs. His 23.1 per-game complete from 2021 is completely pumped up by the 88 factors he registered in two mega-games late final season, performances we won’t rely on him having too usually. He’s a nice quarterback who has a decrease ground than you’d wish to admit. That’s why he is nonetheless price utilizing as a Fantasy starter, however not one you are taking because the fifth passer off the board on the perimeter of Round 5. One take a look at his schedule ought to additional scare you off him.

I’d take him: 107th total (Round 9)

I’d relatively have: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB26, 64.2)

There’s a actual likelihood the CEH practice crashes in 2022. Kansas City not solely signed two-down speedster Ronald Jones to a deal, but in addition introduced again veteran third-down again Jerick McKinnon, plus they nonetheless have powerback Derrick Gore. At least it factors to the Chiefs operating recreation evolving into a multi-man assault; at most it spells the tip of Edwards-Helaire being a common contributor. Not that he was a super-involved a part of the offense to start with — final 12 months he had 15-plus touches in simply 4 video games, lacking seven with damage and restricted by teaching selections in six others. It’s arduous to think about him all of a sudden displacing his competitors and changing into the principle a part of the Chiefs run offense. It’s even tougher to see him pick up a bunch of touchdowns when he has simply 10 carries from three yards or nearer over the previous two seasons whereas Mahomes had 31 move makes an attempt, two rush makes an attempt and 22 complete touchdowns from the identical distance.

I’d take him: 92nd total (Round 8)

I’d relatively have: Rashaad Penny, Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard

Amari Cooper (WR24, 61.4)

I’m out on Cooper for nonetheless lengthy Deshaun Watson is out. That’s as a result of Jacoby Brissett as a quarterback is unhealthy information on two fronts. One, he is performed as a starter for 2 NFL seasons and related with a receiver as soon as for more than 700 yards (TY Hilton, 2017, 57-966-4 on 109 targets). Two, Brissett underneath middle doubtless factors to the Browns sticking with a run-heavy method like final 12 months after they threw the ball 54% of the time (seventh lowest within the league). Not solely would there be a quantity crunch with Cooper, however he’d lack high quality throws since Brissett is a glorified backup. The complete recreation modifications if Watson had been to play as a result of Watson is a large passer who would command more alternatives than Brissett. Naturally, that may assist Cooper. Until we all know for certain when Watson will play, Cooper is not a protected beginning Fantasy receiver.

I’d take him: 82nd total (Round 7)

I’d relatively have: Adam Thielen, Gabriel Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR27, 65.0)

Do you assume Jared Goff will proceed throwing one out of each three throws in St. Brown’s route like he did from Week 13 on final 12 months? That was the apparent secret to St. Brown’s success in late 2021, as a result of he wasn’t a highlight-reel downfield goal (7.04 aDot), nor an explosive receiver (11.0 yards per catch), nor a common close to the aim line (two targets inside 10 yards). The Lions’ additions through free company (DJ Chark) and the draft (Jameson Williams) let you know all the pieces it’s good to find out about how large of a position St. Brown may have shifting ahead. It’ll be sizable — he needs to be their slot receiver with five-catch potential from recreation to recreation — but it surely will not be even half of the 24.5 PPR common he had within the ultimate six weeks. Don’t draft gamers for the factors they scored final 12 months. They do not rely this 12 months.

I’d take him: ninetieth total (Round 8)

I’d relatively have: Hunter Renfrow, DeVonta Smith, DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB31, 77.0)

What’s the marketplace for a 31-year-old transformed receiver/returner who performed operating again and might revert again to receiver? It should not be significantly strong, although Patterson was a Fantasy staple for a lot of final season. The Falcons will not need to wedge him into a major position if they do not wish to — they added depth to their operating again unit and introduced in some large guys to play energy ahead … I imply, broad receiver. Both strikes ought to push Patterson into a much less intense position the place he will not get many touches from recreation to recreation. It does not imply he’ll disappear from the offense, however the upside he fell into in 2021 is not anyplace as excessive. You ought to goal larger with a top-90 pick.

I’d take him: 93rd total (Round 8)

I’d relatively have: Chase Edmonds, Rashaad Penny, Tony Pollard

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