Friday’s Best Bets, Including Pacers vs. Nuggets, Grizzlies vs. Lakers

It’s Friday as soon as once more and meaning the NBA is in overdrive.

Tonight we have got 9 video games on the night’s slate with a pair of actually enjoyable video games that did not make the nationwide TV doubleheader: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:30 pm ET) and Warriors vs. Cavaliers (7:30 p.m. ET).

As far because the nationwide TV video games, the slate is anchored by two video games on ESPN: Heat vs. Mavericks (7:30 pm ET) and Grizzlies vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET).

Our analysts are concentrating on 5 video games on the slate for his or her finest bets on Friday, together with the 2 ESPN video games. They have a various set of picks together with participant props and first quarter bets.

Check out their professional picks and predictions under.

NBA Odds & Picks

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Orlando Magic

Pick
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 Rebounds (+104)
Book
FanDuel
tip off
7 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Munaf Manji: The Pelicans head to Florida for a fast two-game street journey that begins with a matchup in opposition to the Magic tonight.

The Magic are struggling to rebound the basketball, particularly over their previous 10 video games. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Magic ranks twenty seventh in opponent rebounds per recreation and rebound proportion. Over the previous two weeks, the Magic have allowed opposing facilities to seize 15.3 rebounds per recreation.

Jonas Valanciunas has loads of success rebounding the ball in opposition to the Magic. In his previous six video games in opposition to the Magic, Valanciunas has grabbed not less than 15 rebounds in 5, together with a 24-rebound recreation.

Valanciunas has snagged 12 or extra rebounds in three out of his previous 5 video games. I count on Valanciunas to proceed dominating on the glass tonight in opposition to the Magic. FanDuel has the most effective odds on this line (Check out his prop at a number of books right here) and I like this wager as much as 12.5.



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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks

Pick
Mavericks Moneyline (+105)
Book
DraftKings
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
ESPN

Chris Baker: The Mavericks ought to discover some success in opposition to a Heat protection that struggles to defend the 3-point line. The Heat rank twenty ninth in opponent 3-point charge allowed and thirtieth in opponent spot-up charge, in response to Cleaning the Glass and NBA Advanced Stats. That is a recipe for catastrophe in opposition to a Mavericks offense that ranks second in 3-point charge and third in spot-up charge.

The Mavs prioritizes 3s and they need to haven’t any points producing clear seems to be in opposition to a Miami protection that prioritizes taking away pictures on the rim. The Heat protection is closely predicated on forcing turnovers, rating second within the NBA in Turnover Rate on the yr. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks simply do not flip the ball over usually, rating third within the NBA in Turnover Rate. The Heat are 3-12 ATS (20%) when going through an offense that ranks top-10 in turnover charge.

On the flip facet of the ball, the Heat rank seventh in 3-point try charge. The distinction is that the Mavericks truly do an incredible job of defending the perimeter, rating tenth within the NBA in limiting opponent 3s. That rating may very well be deceptive contemplating this protection has been lacking a few of their finest defenders: Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green. With Finney-Smith within the lineup and Christian Wood off the ground (as it will likely be tonight as Wood is out), the Mavericks rank within the 98th percentile of 3-point protection permitting opponents to take simply 30.7% of their makes an attempt from deep.

I believe this line is reasonable on the Mavericks as a result of the books are massively over-valuing Wood. He has been strong, however he would not even rank within the top-five of probably the most impactful Mavericks by Net-Rating swing. Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are again for the Heat — that is the healthiest they have been shortly — however I believe it is going to take a while for them to all get acclimated to enjoying collectively as soon as once more.

Overall, this line is an overreaction and I believe it needs to be nearer to -2 -3 given the huge matchup benefits that Dallas holds. Play Dallas moneyline as much as -125.


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New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Pick
Knicks First Quarter ML (+115)
Book
BetMGM
tip off
7:30 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Jim Turvey: The Knicks are 27-18-1 in opposition to the primary quarter unfold whereas the Hawks are 20-25 ATS within the first quarter.

The full-game line has already moved a bit in direction of the Knicks after popping out at Atlanta -4. According to Action Pro alerts, the Knicks have taken each the lion’s share of the cash, in addition to some sharp cash as effectively.

When this line got here out, it did not make quite a lot of sense to me. The Knicks will likely be with out Mitchell Robinson for this recreation, who’s their largest on-off influence participant this season, however the Hawks is also coping with key accidents, as Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are each listed as questionable.

At full energy, the Knicks have merely been a a lot better crew this season, and provided that the Knicks are higher on the street and that State Farm Arena is much from a fortress, I just like the full-game unfold as effectively.

But probably the most focused spot is the primary quarter, and with the ability to get extra money on the Knicks facet makes it a hammer spot. I’d play this all the way in which to Knicks -120.


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Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets

Pick
Nuggets First Quarter Spread (-3)
Book
BetRivers
tip off
9 pm ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Turvey: If you’re a bettor who enjoys the NBA quarter derivatives market, Friday is a wonderful day for you. This is a wager I’ve circled for days, if not weeks, prematurely.

The Nuggets are the most effective crew in opposition to the unfold within the first quarter, with a 27-18 report (15.1 % ROI), whereas the Pacers sit on the precise different finish of the spectrum, with a 14-31-1 report in first quarters for a woeful -39.9 % ROI. Both of those tendencies have lasted your entire season, and each groups had been even on their similar respective sides of the ledger courting again to final season as effectively.

That pairing of the most effective and worst alone is sufficient to make this an incredible spot, however there’s additionally the truth that this recreation is in Denver, the place the Nuggets have been excellent this season, and the place their opponents have struggled mightily. In reality, street video games in Denver have turn out to be a spot the place groups will usually look to shock some gamers.

The Pacers are already with out Tyrese Haliburton, and do not be shocked if just a few extra names be part of him on the sideline Friday night time as a substitute of braving the excessive altitude Nuggets.

Even with none shock scratches, although, this can be a good spot, and one that’s already on the transfer. If you observe me within the Action Network app (@TurveyBets) you should have already seen that I obtained this final night time for about half some extent cheaper than it’s obtainable proper now, so if you happen to just like the angle, transfer rapidly.

I’d play this quantity out to Denver -4.5 (-105).


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Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers

Pick
Under 244
Book
BetRivers
tip off
10 pm ET
TV
ESPN

Andrew O’Connor-Watts: The Grizzlies have been a dead-over crew these days, however I believe that modifications tonight due to a couple elements. One purpose is that this line is simply excessive for the Grizzlies who’ve the most effective Adjusted Defensive Rating (109.4), in response to Dunks and Threes.

Both the Lakers and the Grizzlies play quick, which is why we’re getting such a excessive quantity, however they rank twelfth and thirteenth in Offensive Possession size respectively.

Another purpose I like this beneath is how the Lakers have been enjoying these days. While they’ve usually been a pace-up crew, that hasn’t been the case previously 5 video games, the place they’re middle-of-the-pack. The Lakers are simply fifteenth in Pace of their final 5 video games (99.4), in response to NBA Advanced Stats, and their Offensive Rating ranks twentieth (113.8).

The Lakers’ sluggish play and lack of environment friendly offense has proven up within the betting tendencies too. The complete has gone beneath in 4 of the previous 5 Lakers video games and a whopping 12 of the final 15 in opposition to the Grizzlies.

Take the underside all the way down to 241.5


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