Hoops Preview: Arizona State 2022-23

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #22 Michigan (3-0)
vs. #78 Arizona State (2-1)

WHERE Prentice 4M Center
Brooklyn, NY
WHEN 9 P.M
THE LINE Kenpom: M -7
Torvik: M -3
TELEVISION ESPN2

THE OVERVIEW

Arizona State! Michigan’s unusual cross-country nemesis they’ve by no means performed! Bobby Hurley scooped up Josh Christopher in a “shock the world” recruitment that paid off with a 10-13 document, then swooped in on a disgruntled Frankie Collins after Michigan picked up Jalen Llewellyn. Meanwhile I’ve been speaking trash about Bobby Hurley’s teaching means for 5 stable years now. Because, I imply: dude sucks. He’s been at Arizona State for eight years, recruited a bunch of expertise, and all he has to point out for it are two First Four bids. He’s had one season within the high 50 in offensive effectivity. He went to Duke.

This 12 months, Arizona State has a three-point escape in opposition to Tarleton State, an OT loss to Texas Southern (which was at Texas Southern, FWIW), and a four-point win over VCU.

I forbid Michigan to lose this recreation. Hear me? FORBID.

THE US

Seth’s graphic [click to embiggen]:

image (6)

faq for these graphics

We have issued Jett Howard as star regardless of the cyan on protection.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth’s graphic [click for big]:

image (5)

Marcus Bagley is out. Hello, Frankie.

[Hit THE JUMP for gonna be weird!]

THE THEM

51739668782_14c487cfb4_k

[Campredon]

This goes to be a bit of transient since between UFR and the upcoming hockey recreation I’m in fast fireplace mode. Apologies.

Point guard Frankie Collins wants no introduction. He was wooed to Tempe by the prospect of being the person and he’s certainly the person for the Sun Devils with a 29% utilization charge. This has its ups and downs. Collins is a frenetic lightning bolt explodes-in-all-directions presence who at the moment has a high 100 help charge… and is popping it over on 26% of his possessions used. His taking pictures has picked up a bit within the early going: he is hitting 68% from the road on 25 makes an attempt and has hit 5 of 16 3PAs.

Collins stays a defensive pest with a excessive steal charge and ought to be tough to get previous for Michigan’s backcourt, though it is unlikely Michigan goes to be operating quite a lot of offense by whoever Collins is checking.

Backcourt mate DJ Horne transferred in from Illinois State final 12 months and put up a 44/36/90 line in his first season in Pac-12 play. He is the sort of Not Just A Shooter who ought to take into account being Just A Shooter; in A+B Kenpom video games final 12 months he was simply 38% inside the road as a result of he by no means, ever will get to the rim—simply 12 makes there final 12 months. He is a wonderful pull-up shooter who will bail out iffy Arizona State possessions however you possibly can’t construct an environment friendly offense out of midrange jumpers by themselves.

With Marcus Bagley unavailable, brothers Desmond and Devan Cambridge began in opposition to VCU. Desmond is a 6’4″ senior who transferred from Nevada, the place he was a stat-sheet-filling excessive utilization taking pictures guard with affordable effectivity (52/36 taking pictures) hampered by an incapacity to get to the free throw line. Devan is a 6’6″ wing who transferred from Auburn, the place he was a low-usage bench participant with a predilection for taking pictures horrible threes. He’s received a 29% profession clip on 320 makes an attempt! What are you doing?

Nevada switch Warren Washington is the middle. He was extraordinarily efficient within the Mountain West the final two years, taking pictures about 60% from the ground. He operates principally as a finisher however does have some back-to-the-basket recreation. He chips in an OREB charge of round 10 and blocks an affordable variety of pictures. He was an 89th percentile put up defender a 12 months in the past, so this can be a recreation the place the opposition takes its possibilities with Dickinson one-on-one.

The bench:

  • 6’10” freshman C Duke Brennan received ten minutes in opposition to VCU largely as a result of Washington fouled out, however he was impactful in his time on the courtroom, scoring 5 factors, grabbing a pair OREBs, and blocking a shot. (He additionally turned it over twice.) He was a fairly nameless recruit—198th within the composite.
  • Meanwhile former #31 composite C Enoch Boakye is on this roster however he received a DNP-CD within the final recreation and has solely had scattered minutes after taking part in about 12 MPG a 12 months in the past. Possible ASU turns to him in the event that they’re having bother defending Dickinson however one thing’s off there.
  • Alonzo Gaffney, who had a cup of espresso at Ohio State in 2020 earlier than taking a 12 months off and transferring, will get about 20 MPG. Last 12 months he shot 52/31 and was a fairly efficient choice on the 4.
  • Luther Muhammad, one other OSU switch, stays the defensive specialist he was in Columbus, though he managed to place up some extremely dangerous numbers a 12 months in the past: 41/19(!) taking pictures with a good break up between twos and threes. That’s an enormous dropoff—not less than from three—from his OSU profession, when he was a 36% deep shooter.
  • Freshman PG Austin Nunez is off to a sizzling begin taking pictures however has put up a bunch of turnovers and fouls. He was the #99 man on the composite.

THE TEMPO FREE

image

For what it is value. This is a very ugly offensive outlook provided that three of the 4 video games ASU has performed have come in opposition to groups ranked worse than 2 hundredth in Kenpom; they gained in opposition to VCU regardless of not placing up 1 PPP.

THE KEYS

52484550162_1be1867ca5_k

[Campredon]

Let them shoot threes, or not less than do not freak out about it. Note: doesn’t apply to Horne. No offense to Frankie however when you’re asking me what I’m doing on a ball display screen the reply is “go below till Frankie proves you possibly can’t.” Meanwhile Devan Cambridge ought to most likely be given the identical prove-it kind of method since he is coming off a season the place he hit 22%. Pack the paint and sag off everybody besides Horne looks like a superb plan.

Continue exploring lead guard Kobe Bufkin. Two consecutive video games he is flashed a substantial quantity of playmaking means—he received a bagel within the assists class in opposition to EMU largely as a result of no one transformed the pictures he arrange—and he is been extraordinarily efficient contained in the arc. Start taking pictures like everybody thinks he can and we’re in enterprise.

Default Dickinson bullet. This one may be harder since ASU has a middle with authentic size and a very good statistical profile, however he is your horse and he will likely be ridden. Yeehaw.

Is Joey Baker a factor? All trying like Nik Stauskas on the market rapidly.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

Leave a Comment