How to Navigate the Third Base Market

The third base market goes to be fascinating to navigate this season. It’s top-heavy with six guys entering into the top-40 picks, a few stragglers, after which a large cliff. Depending on the place an individual drafts, there won’t be a method to keep away from the cliff. I’m going to dive into this market and level out some attainable other ways to navigate for a suitable answer.

Here are the third basemen (20 video games min) who’re in the participant pool with their NFBC and FanTrax ADP. The NFBC shall be based mostly on rostering gamers in 5×5 Roto leagues (AVG) whereas most of the leagues at FanTrax are factors bases (finest balls). Additionally, I included an ADP-based public sale worth for 12-team leagues. The final column is the greenback worth from our public sale calculator.

Third Base Marketplace

Rank Name Position FanTrax NFBC Average FanTrax AV NFBC AV Avg AV FG’s AV
1 Jose Ramirez 3B 4 3 3 $42 $45 $43 $26
2 Manny Machado 3B 14 15 14 $30 $29 $30 $22
3 Bobby Witt Jr. 3B, SS 32 7 19 $22 $36 $27 $25
4 Austin Riley 3B 25 20 23 $24 $26 $25 $24
5 Rafael Devers 3B 26 20 23 $24 $26 $25 $25
6 Nolan Arenado 3B 39 35 37 $20 $21 $21 $20
7 Alex Bregman 3B 53 83 68 $17 $13 $15 $15
8 Gunnar Henderson 3B 98 92 95 $12 $12 $12 $11
9 Eugenio Suarez 3B 126 149 137 $10 $8 $9 $2
10 Max Muncy 2B, 3B 129 149 139 $9 $8 $9 $5
11 Matt Chapman 3B 130 166 148 $9 $7 $8 $4
12 Alec Bohm 3B 182 182 182 $6 $6 $6 $5
13 Jose Miranda 1B, 3B 214 155 184 $5 $8 $6 $7
14 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 197 177 187 $6 $6 $6 $8
15 Brandon Drury 1B, 2B, 3B 203 200 202 $5 $5 $5 $0
16 Josh Rojas 2B, 3B 200 210 205 $5 $5 $5 $1
17 Ryan McMahon 3B 199 219 209 $5 $5 $5 $8
18 Josh Jung 3B 217 222 219 $5 $4 $5 -$2
19 Anthony Rendon 3B 228 250 239 $4 $3 $4 $5
20 DJ LeMahieu 1B, 2B, 3B 222 262 242 $4 $3 $4 -$1
21 Yandy Diaz 3B 236 270 253 $4 $3 $3 $10
22 Jon Berti 2B, 3B 268 243 256 $3 $4 $3 -$4
23 Justin Turner 3B 274 238 256 $3 $4 $3 $4
24 Ha-Seong Kim 3B, SS 261 261 261 $3 $3 $3 $1
25 Luis Urías 2B, 3B, SS 285 244 264 $2 $4 $3 $1
26 Luis Rengifo 2B, 3B 271 293 282 $3 $2 $2 -$3
27 Yoán Moncada 3B 289 296 293 $2 $2 $2 $1
28 Jordan Walker 3B, OF 326 270 298 $1 $3 $2 -$4
29 Wilmer Flores 1B, 2B, 3B 298 342 320 $2 $1 $1 -$2
30 Brendan Donovan 2B, 3B, OF 328 315 322 $1 $1 $1 $1
31 Gio Urshela 3B 318 363 340 $1 $0 $1 -$7
32 Patrick Wisdom 3B 289 406 347 $2 -$1 $0 -$11
33 Eduardo Escobar 3B 322 378 350 $1 $0 $0 -$6
34 Isaac Paredes 1B, 2B, 3B 359 345 352 $0 $0 $0 $0
35 Kyle Farmer 3B, SS 323 405 364 $1 -$1 $0 -$17
36 Rodolfo Castro 2B, 3B 381 356 369 $0 $0 $0 -$6
37 Brett Baty 3B 370 391 381 $0 -$1 $0 -$22
38 Josh Donaldson 3B 356 413 385 $0 -$1 -$1 -$8
39 JD Davis 3B 378 395 387 $0 -$1 -$1 -$12
40 Ramón Urías 2B, 3B 395 379 387 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2

To study how to method every league, I’m going to use the averaged public sale values ​​(Avg AV) with every customary league measurement.

10-Team combined, No CI spot

The Big 6 (Ramirez, Manchado, Witt, Riley, Devers, and Arenado) shall be drafted straight away in the first three rounds. Since the league is smaller, each crew will probably have two pictures at considered one of these six.

The Next 2 (Bregman and Henderson) present a step-down however are cheap choices till the expertise degree drops off once more.

At least two groups miss out on the prime choices and they need to wait and fill the spot at the finish. These groups is not going to be pleased with their choices and shall be streaming the place to begin the season. The one exception could be utilizing the Seager-Hayes different answer (finish of the article).

As for bench third basemen to fill in for accidents or off days, I’d concentrate on the multi-eligible guys so only one man can be utilized at a number of positions. If attainable, roster one with some upside/breakout potential.

12-Team combined, No CI spot

The identical technique must be utilized in 12 teamers as in 10 teamers. A few dual-qualified guys, Max Muncy (2B, 3B) and Jose Miranda (1B, 3B), could also be on a regular basis guys and are not streaming choices.

Starting with Max Muncy, 16 of the remainder of the third basemen listed above have not less than twin eligibility. A few multi-position guys I might be wanting to go to one other degree could be Luis Urias (25, 16 HR in 472 PA) or Isaac Paredes (23, 20 HR in 381 PA).

10-Team combined, 1 CI spot

The nook infield spot should not change an individual’s method with third basemen. Most of the nook spots shall be stuffed by a plethora of first basemen.

12-team combined, 1 CI spot.

Roster administration will get slightly dicer at this level. Let’s say 16 third basemen are beginning at this level (12 3B, 4 of 12 CI) after which 12 extra on the benches, the streaming choices are in the Wilmer Flores–Gio Urshela vary. That is the best-case situation. The precise scenario could be quite a bit worse. The bench choices are drying up.

With little to no streaming choices, managers would possibly make it much more of a precedence to NOT stream and get a kind of early choices. I do not see a cause to prioritize anybody after these first eight. Everyone is both damaged (Rendon), has no upside (Diaz), or has unknown enjoying time (Walker).

15-team combined, 1 CI spot

The new problem right here is that a number of of the early picks might by no means get an opportunity to draft considered one of the Big 6 with out actually pushing up an possibility. Arenado goes proper at the 2-3 flip. If somebody does not get Ramirez at the prime, the relaxation would possibly get drafted by the time the draft comes round to the second decide

In these leagues, not less than seven managers shall be bottom-feeding. Everyone ought to have a plan. The later groups would possibly need to double-tap guys with one possibility being multi-position (eg Turner and Kim). The backside groups ought to purpose to have a good backup/streaming possibility and never hope to roster this season’s one or two breakouts.

10 or 12-team AL or NL solely, 1 CI

Alternative Actions

The falling concepts are some totally different actions {that a} supervisor can use with the third base place.

Find Your Late Guy. Someone going late goes to get away. Antony Rendon might be wholesome. Josh Jong might discover the plate. Yandy Diaz might begin lifting the ball. Jordan Walker may very well be given a beginning spot from day one. We are enjoying a recreation and a part of that recreation is staying up on the information and reacting to it earlier than others. I might see the prime eight get pushed greater the place hitting on a late man might give a affected person crew an enormous benefit.

Vigilance. Guys all the time pop up (see Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo in ’22). While others could be looking the wire for third-base breakouts, it could be price going the further greenback on the newest sizzling commodity.

Bobby Witt Double Up. In this situation, the one who takes Bobby Witt strikes him to brief cease and grabs one other third baseman. The transfer retains one fewer crew from rostering an elite man and can probably get individuals scrambling for the remaining choices. Another path could be to roster considered one of the Big 6 after which add Gunnar Henderson figuring out that Henderson ought to add shortstop eligibility in a few weeks.

Seager-Hayes Solution. This plan takes two gamers who do not present typical manufacturing for his or her place, Corey Seager (SS) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B), and “swap” their manufacturing. Seager is projected for a .275 AVG, 27 HR, and 1 SB whereas Hayes is ready to go along with a .256 AVG, 11 HR, and 15 SB. Seager will want to be rostered first after which Hayes later. Instead of Seager, Carlos Correa (23 HR, 1 SB, .271 AVG) may very well be used. For different third base choices, there are Josh Rojas (10 HR, 14 SB, .249 AVG) or Jon Berti (6 HR, 24 SB, .239 AVG).

Hidden Qualifiers. There are all the time going to be guys including third-base eligibility. I’ve recognized three choices thus far:

  • Miguel Vargas: It’s not set in stone that Vargas will begin the season as the Dodgers third baseman, however there’s a respectable probability. Add him in redraft leagues and drop him if he is not enjoying.
  • Jean Segura: He’s the secure wager to get the Marlins job however with restricted manufacturing.
  • Nick Maton: The Tigers are saying he’ll play some third base.

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