Is there any reason to doubt Jalen Hurts?

Fantasy soccer analyst Matt Harmon is revealing the highlights of his positional projections for the 2022 season. First up, listed here are the quarterback projections that stood out to him.

It’s going to be unimaginable not to like Jalen Hurts

If you are fading Jalen Hurts this 12 months, it’s essential to assume he is going to get benched sooner or later. I’d argue there is nearly zero proof there’s even any kind of tangible threat that occurs. There’s no different logical reason for being out on Hurts at his QB8 ADP.

Hurts had a 25.2 p.c dashing share of the Eagles’ offense in 15 video games final 12 months. I’ve bought him at 28% for a full season in 2022. With the Eagles all too doubtless to be one of many top-10 most run-heavy offenses within the NFL, Hurts ought to soar over 700 yards on the bottom. If he maintains wherever shut to his profession dashing landing fee (6%), he can simply pop in six to eight scores.

Hurts ought to see a lift in his passing effectivity as properly. Taking Jalen Reagor’s targets and handing them to AJ Brown in a projection mannequin is huge.

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Brown has averaged 14.6 yards per catch with a 7.6% landing fee during the last two years. It’s not as if he is been enjoying with an elite quarterback both. Some of that effectivity has to bleed into Hurts’ passing numbers and that is on prime of the efforts of two robust holdovers in DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert

If you miss out on the Tier 1 quarterbacks in fantasy, nothing ought to be holding you again from taking a look at Hurts as an each week reply with a high-ceiling and regular flooring combo.

Brian Daboll ought to be a giant increase for Daniel Jones

All of the Giants’ talent place gamers are going from the outhouse to the penthouse by way of offensive design and play-calling.

Leaving behind the Joe Judge/Jason Garrett mind belief and getting into a unit with Brian Daboll and former Chiefs’ assistant Mike Kafka on the controls is such a win. My projections closely weigh the final three years of former team-level knowledge for brand new head coaches and offensive coordinators.

So, the Giants get infused with a mix of 2019 to 2021 tempo and play-calling knowledge from the Bills and Chiefs. Not unhealthy.

As such, my projections love the Giants’ offensive construction. New York checks in tenth within the NFL in performs run and sixth in go makes an attempt. Taking Daniel Jones’ passing stats and projecting them out in that kind of offense, mixed along with his 4.5 rush makes an attempt per sport profession common, makes him appear like a fantasy star.

Will the Giants’ new teaching employees rework Daniel Jones right into a fantasy star? (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Of course, uncooked projections do not at all times soak up volatility and we all know Jones is a risky participant. The crew didn’t decide up his fifth-year choice and offseason experiences have been shaky to this point. There’s an opportunity he does not even begin 17 video games and even when he does, he won’t play properly sufficient to have this offense hit its theoretical ceiling.

As a lot as fantasy managers appear to just like the Giants’ offense as a spot to mine sneaky fantasy worth there’s nonetheless an opportunity Jones sinks your entire operation.

So whereas projection fashions would possibly love Jones, rankings ought to mirror a few of that low flooring together with the stable fantasy ceiling. I’ve him settled in at QB17.

Trevor Lawrence hits a play-calling jackpot

The 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars have been an unserious operation. You may give Trevor Lawrence a go for his output whereas enjoying in that clown present.

Doug Pederson won’t be some younger, upstart offensive thoughts however the outlines of his Eagles’ offense can be a giant increase for Lawrence. The Eagles ranked eighth in passing play share in 2020, twentieth in 2019 and seventh in 2018. They ranked sixth, first and ninth in performs run per sport throughout that very same span.

So we will count on the Jaguars to play quick and be a pass-leaning offense. My projections have them top-10 in go makes an attempt and performs run.

As lengthy because the supporting forged coalesces round Lawrence and he reveals the identical expertise he displayed on movie final 12 months, the Jaguars’ offense may very well be good soil to develop fantasy worth. Lawrence additionally had an 18.6% share of his crew’s rush makes an attempt as a rookie, which solely provides to his fantasy QB1 sleeper enchantment.

I do not understand how to undertaking the Patriots with Mac Jones

If you are leaning closely into the final three years of play-calling knowledge, it is going to be robust to love the Patriots’ passing sport. New England has performed slower than the Tom Brady years, and fairly run-heavy over their final two seasons.

How a lot of that was as a result of they have been enjoying with Cam Newton in 2020 and a rookie passer in 2021?

Projections assist kind a baseline and information you in the direction of a “more than likely” end result. In that mannequin, I’ve the Patriots ranked simply twenty fifth in go makes an attempt for this 12 months. I’m open to that being fallacious and really imagining the upside case with Mac Jones and this passing sport.

There’s an opportunity Jones — who does not get sufficient credit score for a rock-solid rookie marketing campaign — leans in additional to the correct, passing point-guard mannequin of quarterback in Year 2. The Patriots do not have stars at pass-catcher however have a immediately deep and various group of receivers and tight ends. Jones may function as a Philip Rivers/Drew Brees-style distributor if the Patriots return in the direction of the mannequin they performed with beneath Brady prior to 2019.

I would like to be open to that chance as a result of I believe Jones is sweet and these pass-catchers go so late for the amount they’ll soak up.

We know Bill Belichick has been a chameleon coach based mostly on his personnel and this roster seems prefer it has the kind of gamers to lean into both type of offense. Couple that with the very fact we do not actually know who’s the highest offensive coach (and our choices are both Joe Judge or Matt Patricia) and that is one offense the place projections merely cannot bake within the upside of the unknown.

Kirk Cousins ​​could be undervalued

There’s an opportunity that Kirk Cousins throws for five,000 yards this season with the best way the Vikings are going to name performs.

Minnesota has ranked a mean of twenty fourth in passing play share (54.8%) the final three seasons. I’ve bought them down for the fifteenth most go makes an attempt within the NFL this season based mostly on new head coach Kevin O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips’ historical past with the Rams. Those groups have been nearer to a 59% passing play fee and operated at a sooner tempo.

Cousins ​​is not a star however has at all times been an environment friendly passer, clearing 8.0 adjusted yards per try in every of his final three seasons. He even has a near-5K passing season on his resume, hitting 4,917 yards with Washington in 2016.

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If we’re all on board with Justin Jefferson as a top-two fantasy receiver this season due to this offensive shift, we ought to be moderately excited concerning the man throwing him the ball.

I will not be rating Cousins ​​as a QB1 due to his lack of dashing upside. But as soon as I miss out on that tier or want a QB2 in Superflex, Cousins ​​shall be a chief goal. Spike weeks are going to be there.

Carson Wentz goes to have to be actually unhealthy to mess this up

Ron Rivera undoubtedly comes throughout as an old-school, hard-nosed type of coach however his offensive coordinator is a reasonably progressive play-caller. Scott Turner took over for his father beneath Rivera in Carolina and has run fast-paced offenses that throw the ball at an honest clip.

Washington ranked seventeenth and ninth in performs run the final two years and Carolina was sixth in 2019. These groups have averaged a dashing play fee of simply 39%. Turner’s slowest and run-heaviest 12 months was final season and you may chalk most of that to enjoying with an inferior passer.

The approach Turner calls performs is precisely what we wish in a fantasy-friendly offense. Especially one with a possible WR1 Terry McLaurin and different intriguing names. Washington did not precisely make an enormous improve within the offseason however Carson Wentz continues to be higher than what they rolled out in 2021. He’ll have to be actually unhealthy to mess this up for his go catchers.

Pace is an issue for Aaron Rodgers

The Packers traded away one of the best receiver in soccer this offseason and did not add a confirmed above-average participant on the place. But that is not the largest drawback Aaron Rodgers this season.

The Packers have ranked 18th, twenty fourth and nineteenth in performs run during the last three seasons beneath Matt LaFleur. They have been one of many uncommon groups to dip under 1,000 in Rodgers’ 2020 MVP season. They’ve additionally ranked 14th and eleventh in run play share the final two seasons. Some of that’s boosted by how typically they’ve gained however that should not change heading into 2022.

Green Bay has already leaned a bit conservative-leaning since LaFleur arrived. There’s an opportunity they may go additional in that course this season. They’ve invested of their protection and will characteristic a top-10 unit. The two greatest gamers on their offense after Rodgers are Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. It makes all of the sense on the earth to characteristic them.

Receiver is not a premium place in Green Bay and the general passing quantity may very well be trending down. Rodgers may have to be hyper-efficient to put up stats like he has the final two years. Of course, he can try this as a result of he is Rodgers however all that’s the reason he is going to are available in in the direction of the back-end of QB1 rankings this 12 months.

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