Jensen’s Upside, Another Mixed Mervis Report, New Top 30 List, More

Some Chicago Cubs prospect notes in your Tuesday afternoon…

  • I would not characterize it as a shock – or perhaps a shock – that righty Ryan Jensen was added to the 40-man roster final week to guard him from the Rule 5 Draft, however he was the one man added who wasn’t beforehand thought of a lock (like Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcántara, and Ben Brown). That will naturally make of us somewhat extra interested in what the Cubs have deliberate for Jensen in 2023, and thus I very a lot admire the most recent from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney:
  • Read it if you need the entire image on Jensen’s evolution, and why – behind the scenes – it had turn out to be a no brainer that he could be added to the 40-man roster. The brief model is that the Cubs knew by the Spring that Jensen’s supply wanted important work, however the precise strategy of getting there may be advanced, multi-layered, and requires whole buy-in from the participant. One of the largest steps was the midseason detour on the Development List again in Arizona, out of which we noticed Jensen return to Tennessee with a really noticeably decreased arm stroke, and the stuff nonetheless wanting nasty. By the tip of the yr, the Cubs had been actually liking the place Jensen was.
  • Jensen, who was the Cubs’ first spherical decide in 2019 and is about to show 25, will preserve beginning on into 2023 (one group official within the article says he graded Jensen at SIX above-average pitches). It’s simple to have a look at the management points and the near-100 mph and assume there is a future aid there, however no cause to make that transfer simply but. I’d name it TBD whether or not he returns to Double-A Tennessee to open the season, or will get the bump to Triple-A Iowa. He is likely to be a man whom the Cubs have to see within the Spring to make a certain choice, given all that he is been engaged on.

Having gone undrafted in 2020, Mervis makes for an interesting underdog story, though that label is a bit deceptive. The draft lasted solely 5 rounds that yr, and he would have been a lock to go within the prime 10 rounds as a senior out of Duke in a standard yr. But, asterisk or not, the man has hit. The lefty swinger entered the autumn league having raked from High A all the best way to Triple A, and batted .262/.324/.590 with a league-leading six house runs.

Turning 25 in April, he was additionally one of many oldest gamers in a league that skewed a bit youthful this yr, leaving scouts to guess how a lot of his efficiency was projectable talent and the way a lot was him beating up on youthful pitchers in a pitching -poor league. “Feels like a man who’s going to achieve success within the higher minors after which have a tough time adjusting to big-league pitching,” one scout stated. The uncooked energy is legit, incomes a 65 grade from one evaluator, however his swing is a bit lengthy and leaves him vulnerable to left-on-left matchups.

There’s little thriller about his protection at first, although, which appeared tough at instances this fall. But the designated hitter spot and his means to park balls within the seats could forgive a few of that. (*30*) for a comparability, one scout instructed Daniel Vogelbach-type worth. Another shot somewhat larger. “I’m a believer,” that scout stated. “A Rowdy Tellez kind who hits sufficient errors out.”

  • I do know that it is a temporary look in a specialised league, and it comes after a season the place Mervis did EVERYTHING you possibly can presumably hope for from a manufacturing standpoint. But you possibly can’t simply ignore the scouting seems since you do not like what they are saying. Maybe there are causes to be involved about his means towards big-league-caliber pitching, and perhaps we’ll see that in time (at which level you simply hope he adjusts and retains creating). I believe the query on his protection there’s a *BIT* sturdy, since there isn’t a universe through which he is near being a DH-only kind.

As for the offensive comp to Dan Vogelbach, that would not be the worst final result, proper, since we all know the glove would really be playable at first base? Vogelbach is a profession .218/.343/.411/110 wRC+ hitter, and has hit righties at .238/.364/.458/127 wRC+. Not precisely what you’d need at first base, however once more, the large distinction is that Vogelbach is a real DH-only man. Matt Mervis can play first base. (Also, I reallllly do not see the comp. Vogelbach was a never-swing-at-anything kind of disciplined man, which has all the time actually hampered his energy manufacturing. Mervis is far more aggressive, and his ISOs this yr blow away something Vogelbach ever did within the minors.)

  • The Northside Bound crew every provided their prime 30 prospect lists over the previous week, after which the mixed checklist simply dropped:
  • Obviously the intense accidents to Alexander Canario, and the misplaced season/setback for Brennen Davis, have actually put a bitter observe on issues. But it is good to see a listing like that and be reminded that, at a minimal, the Cubs have ridiculous high quality depth proper now. You have a man like Jordan Wicks displaying up at 8, Cristian Hernández at 9, James Triantos at 14, DJ Herz at 16, Caleb Kilian at 20 … and all of that’s completely justifiable. I are likely to assume the story of final offseason for the system continues to be the story this offseason (however in all probability much more pronounced): the near-big-league-ready, true-impact varieties are few and much between. But the standard depth is as sturdy as I can bear in mind seeing.
  • New Cubs utility prospect Miles Mastrobuoni obtained a point out from Eric Longenhagen in his newest FanGraphs chat: “Love Mastro as a do-it-all bench piece. Low affect, however belongs within the bigs.” Hey, I’ll take it.

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