Jump to Conclusions: Week 1 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 1 version of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is the place I, Sam Hoppen, will share a few of my favourite charts, that are designed to provide you with an summary of the NFL panorama. These charts, together with the commentary that I present, goal to provide help to make begin or sit, DFS lineup development, or another fantasy soccer selections. There might be a whole lot of noise in fantasy soccer evaluation, however these charts have been fastidiously chosen to provide you with a few of the most related and helpful determination factors.

Each of the charts has been designed in a manner that you really want to be focusing on gamers and groups which are within the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black traces, which signify the median worth for the stat on both the x -axis or y-axis. Before getting to every of the charts and analyses, listed below are some temporary descriptions of what you can see on every chart and how to interpret them. As you possibly can see, I’ve additionally added views on the final 5 weeks of video games.

Note: impartial game-script is outlined as performs outdoors of the two-minute warning with a win chance between 20% and 80% for the offensive workforce.

  • Team Pace and Plays: Compares a workforce’s common performs per sport to its neutral-script tempo, utilizing seconds per play as a measure of tempo. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to present faster-paced groups (fewer seconds per play) on high. Simply put, groups (and general matchups) with extra performs and quicker tempo will supply extra alternatives for fantasy point-scoring.
  • Team Pass Rates: Compares a workforce’s neutral-script cross fee (NPR) to its red-zone cross fee, with the dimensions of the workforce’s level displaying its cross fee over expectation (PROE). Here we will determine which groups are passing probably the most when the sport script is not a deciding issue and after they get shut to the purpose line.
  • Running Back Usage: Compares operating again snap share to his high-value touches (carries inside the ten and receptions), with the dimensions of the participant’s level as his whole alternatives per sport.
  • Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares participant weighted alternative score (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the dimensions of the participant’s level as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights each air yards share and goal share to consider a participant’s alternative, whereas RACR divides a participant’s receiving yards by his air yards to consider his effectivity within the alternative he’s given. The charts present the identical info for each the broad receiver and tight finish place.

Team Pace and Plays

  • Last 12 months, the Green Bay Packers have been the slowest workforce within the NFL, with a impartial script seconds per play of 33.7 seconds. They picked up proper the place they left off, operating a play each 33 seconds of their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Typically, enjoying that sluggish makes the offense simple to keep away from, particularly from a DFS perspective, as a result of they do not supply the identical weekly ceiling as groups that play shortly. However, final 12 months, Green Bay featured a 9.8% explosive cross fee, so that they have been in a position to transfer the ball with chunk performs. Although Christian Watson dropped what would have been an explosive cross, this tempo and the lack of focus within the passing assault make their pass-catchers a transparent keep away from in all codecs till we get extra readability.
    • Action: begin solely Packers operating backs and Robert Tonyan till a large receiver differentiates himself in goal share
  • On the flip aspect, the 2 quickest groups final 12 months – the Chargers and the Cowboys – remained two of the highest-paced groups in Week 1. However, there’s trigger for concern with the Cowboys now that they will be with out Dak Prescott for an prolonged time period. In one sport that Prescott missed final 12 months, Dallas went from a neutral-script tempo of 27.7 seconds per play to a sluggish 32.2 seconds per play. While Dallas did play with some urgency in direction of the tip of Week 1, they have been pressured to by dealing with a double-digit deficit. Not solely is Dallas’ tempo a priority, however they have been the one workforce not to rating a landing in Week 1 and posted a ghastly -0.48 EPA per play on offense.
    • Action: begin solely Ceedee Lamb whereas Prescott is out

Team Pass Rates

  • Lamar Jackson desires a brand new contract, and if Baltimore goes to proceed to cross as a lot as they did in Week 1, they may need to get one thing locked up shortly, even when he is advised them he is completed negotiating. Last 12 months, Baltimore’s 58.1% neutral-script cross fee ranked seventeenth within the league, which does not sound excessive, however when you think about that they ranked thirty second in every of the 2 years prior, it was a giant soar. Now, with a impartial script cross fee of 75% Week 1, the Ravens could proceed to characteristic Jackson’s arms over his legs. So what does this imply for fantasy? Well, it signifies that guys like Devin Duvernay, who earned each of the workforce’s finish zone targets in Week 1 and boasted 3.0 yards per route run, could have some fantasy worth.

  • Bring in a star broad receiver, and you may be served effectively by passing a bunch. That’s simply what the Las Vegas Raiders did by buying Davante Adams and peppering him with 17 targets, tied for the fourth-most in a sport in his profession. In 2021, Las Vegas’ 61% neutral-script cross fee ranked twelfth within the league – the Raiders could not cross as ceaselessly as they did in Week 1 (a 75% cross fee is very excessive), but it surely’s encouraging to know that they will possible proceed this pattern below new head coach Josh McDaniels. The query is — is there sufficient of the pie to go round for Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, who each totaled six targets in Week 1? I consider so as a result of I do not count on Adams to have such an outrageous goal whole every week.

Running Back Usage

  • When the New York Jets introduced Joe Flacco because the Week 1 starter over Mike White, I used to be barely disenchanted as a result of White was a boon for the Jets’ operating backs in his begins final 12 months. Well, it seems that each of them are! Because of Flacco, the Jets have been tied for the second-most workforce excessive worth touches with 13 (Breece Hall had six whereas Michael Carter had seven). Between the 2 backs, the receiving numbers are virtually an identical. While Hall had another goal (10 to Carter’s 9), they each ran a route on 42% of dropbacks. Conversely, Carter out-carried Hall 10 to 6 and seemed like the higher rusher, posting 1.2 dashing yards over expectation per carry. But what actually stands out is that Carter dominated in Third-down snap share (70.6% to 23.5%) and crimson zone snap share (61.5% to 38.5%). These lead me to consider that Carter remains to be the 1a and Hall is the 1b.
  • Another backfield that incorporates a rookie operating again that additionally did not pan out as anticipated is that of the Houston Texans. Massively-hyped rookie operating again Dameon Pierce performed second fiddle to veteran Rex Burkhead, getting out-snapped 51 to 20 in Week 1. Burkhead was clearly the lead receiving again, operating a route on 61% of the workforce’s dropbacks, whereas Pierce solely ran 5 whole routes. The shiny aspect for Pierce is that he was used fairly ceaselessly when he was on the sphere. Despite enjoying solely 20 snaps, he had 12 whole alternatives within the sport. If his snap share rises, then I might count on his alternatives to rise with it.

Wide Receiver Usage

  • Like the Raiders, the Miami Dolphins invested closely in an elite broad receiver and shortly acquired him concerned. Tyreek Hill recorded a team-high 38.7% goal share and 41.9% air yards share. With that, his 0.84 WOPR ranked fifth on the week, whereas his teammate recorded a 0.37 WOPR, good for 56th on the week. Unfortunately, Hill failed to discover the tip zone this week, however that retains the chance for fantasy managers to purchase excessive on him down to an affordable value. Behind Hill and Waddle, Chase Edmonds was the one participant to report greater than two objectives. This offense seems to be to be among the many extra concentrated passing assaults within the league once more this 12 months, which is a large optimistic for Hill and Waddle.
  • It was clear coming into the season that Amon-Ra St. Brown can be one of many core items of the Lions’ passing offense. But, many fantasy pundits attributed his success to TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift lacking time throughout his late-season run. Well, he shoved all these haters apart recorded 12 targets in Week 1, tied for his profession excessive in a sport. St. Brown additionally discovered the tip zone and may have had an excellent larger day if not for 2 drops. The larger story out of Detroit, although, is DJ Chark taking command of the WR2 function within the offense. Chark’s 22.2% goal share was second on the workforce. Most notably, although, is that Chark ran as many routes as St. Brown did (36) and was the workforce’s deep risk with a 15.5-yard common depth of goal.
    • Action: begin DJ Chark as a flex choice
  • Michael Pittman is an alpha broad receiver, and if that wasn’t apparent coming into the season, it ought to be now after incomes 13 targets (good for a 26.5% goal share) and solely coming off the sphere for one of many Colts’ dropbacks There was all the time a query of who was behind Pittman on the Indianapolis depth chart, although. While the reply may appear apparent in Ashton Dulin being the WR2 due to his six targets, he barely noticed the sphere, operating a route on simply 25.9% of Indy’s workforce dropbacks. He appeared to be the workforce’s deep risk with a 15.8-yard common depth of goal. Meanwhile, each Parris Campbell and rookie Alec Pierce ran a route on over 66% of dropbacks however solely acquired 4 and two targets, respectively. I might have a tendency to lean in direction of Pierce because the second choice (at the least when it comes to fantasy) as he acquired two of the workforce’s 4 finish zone targets, however he’s coping with a concussion, so he could also be out this week. There’s nonetheless some ambiguity with this receiving group and this week ought to give us much more readability.

Tight End Usage

(*1*)

  • Kyle Pitts managers that drafted him within the first three rounds are possible involved after a 4.8-point fantasy efficiency in Week 1. But, there’s loads of motive to consider the Pitts remains to be the true deal and that the Falcons need to characteristic him as an offensive weapon. First, he was nonetheless tied for the workforce lead with a 21.9% goal share and ran a route on 75.7% of the workforce’s dropbacks. The drawback was that he solely transformed two of his seven targets to a reception, however that might have been due to his 13.3-yard common depth of goal, which is up from 10.8 yards final 12 months. Take a deep breath and let the Pitts factors come to you.

    • Action: purchase or maintain Kyle Pitts and begin him with none doubts
  • Similar to Pitts, David Njoku had a disappointing day. Although the expectations for Njoku have been a lot decrease than Pitts, Njoku solely earned one purpose on Sunday whereas teammate Harrison Bryant was tied for second on the workforce in objectives with 4. The encouraging half is that Njoku ran a route on 72.2% of the workforce’s dropbacks (third-most on the workforce behind Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper), which was almost double the speed that Bryant had (41.2%). Additionally, the Browns used two-tight-end units on the ninth-highest fee in Week 1, so it is clear that they need to characteristic their tight ends with the dearth of depth at receiver.

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