I’m certain I’ll sound like the actual life model of the Charlie-connecting-strings-on-the-conspiracy-wall gif, however I simply assume I’ve acquired a reasonably good deal with on what is going on on with the Cubs and mets. So when I see new stuff come out, it reads to me very otherwise than the phrases on the web page. You’ll assume I’m loopy, however the ole intestine says I’m onto one thing.
Let me attempt to carry you to the place my headspace sits.
As we all know, the Cubs and Mets have been in a dance for at the very least every week now, with the Cubs clearly seeking to get a prospect haul, and the Mets seeking to get each Willson Contreras and David Robertson. And, since neither aspect needs to return out on the brief finish of the deal – and as a result of the Cubs are additionally doubtless dialoguing with different groups, together with the Padres (who’re ready on Juan Soto) – they maintain dancing. And the Mets, particularly, appear to maintain placing out public alerts about what number of different choices they’ve, how excessive the Cubs’ costs are, and so on and so on.
Then you had a curious report out of Chicago that Mets prospect Mark Vientos was a reputation to observe in a potential take care of the Mets. It was so particular. Vientos is just not alone in that second tier of Mets prospects, however he’s arguably the man the Mets may most need to transfer, given the presence of Pete Alonso at the huge league stage. So if he was a reputation to observe – as a part of a package deal? – it will make some sense, since the Cubs may worth him greater than the Mets at the second. You by no means know.
okay But there is a whopper of a inform tonight. The one the place I really feel like I can see the Matrix and I REALLY know what is going on on. Let me discuss my method via it. There are layers.
First. An SNY report (you understand, the broadcast associate of the Mets) signifies that the Mets particularly don’t need to by chance make one other “Pete Crow-Armstrong commerce,” and that is animating quite a lot of their habits this deadline. What’s that ACTUALLY saying, although? What is the level of speaking it publicly? It’s saying that the Cubs stole PCA, it was a completely unfair commerce, so something that appears remotely like that this 12 months is unfair, and no commerce associate ought to anticipate it from the Mets. We will not do this once more! We swear!
In different phrases, I do not assume the Mets are literally afraid of constructing one other PCA commerce. I assume they need commerce companions to return into talks with that mindset. It’s only a bracing approach. There is a selected deal they need the Cubs to make, and they need the Cubs to be the ones to should go over the prime to get that deal completed.
The report goes on to state, particularly, that the Cubs anticipate Vientos in a deal for Contreras, however the Mets will not do it:
Specifically, whereas the Mets are unwilling to maneuver prime prospect Francisco Alvarez for anybody however Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani, league sources say that they really feel basically the similar method about Mark Vientos, the group’s fifth-ranked prospect through MLB.com.
Eppler leans strongly in opposition to transferring him for a free-agent-to-be like Martinez or Christian Vazquez (in 2020 the Red Sox tried to commerce Vazquez for a package deal highlighted by Vientos).
The Cubs have indicated the sort of return they anticipate for Contreras, and it is greater than the Mets pays. If it would not come down, the Mets will stroll away.
Comparing Francisco Alvarez, the prime prospect in baseball, to Mark Vientos. Interesting message to place out, Mets. The article additionally mentions that, if the Mets cannot purchase a bat, they may merely name up the 22-year-old Vientos to be their huge bat addition.
Curious, given how redundant Vientos appears to be for the Mets, who cannot use him at first base, and who would presumably be solely a short-term choice at DH (for a playoff contender? Calling him as much as be your DH for his huge league debut down the stretch? OK, possibly… ). Simply put, I do not imagine the Mets are literally all for holding Vientos off the desk.
But wait a minute. Didn’t we all know that the Mets need a bat AND a aid pitcher? Didn’t we all know that the Mets have been in talks with the Cubs about Contreras AND David Robertson?
This is the Mets telling the Cubs that they need the Cubs to supply BOTH Contreras and Robertson for a package deal headlined by Vientos. That’s the particular deal the Mets need. This is the place it is all been going, in my opinion, and what this entire dance has been about.
We cannot commerce Vientos – who we love and completely need to maintain and he could be our difference-making bat this 12 months! – for simply Contreras. Don’t even ask. We’ll stroll away. Oh, wait, you even have Robertson? We completely forgot about that! Yes, sure, that is perhaps one method to put this deal over the prime. What an awesome suggestion from you!
The Mets don’t desire the Cubs to return down from their ask. They need the Cubs to just accept the proposition that they should ship the Mets BOTH of their prime rental items simply to get the man that the Cubs *MAYBE* have *SOME* curiosity in. This is, of their thoughts, how they win.
I’m doing a ton of extrapolating. I do not deny it. I informed you I may appear loopy. But I’m fairly darn certain I’m proper.
To be clear, there *is* a package deal from the Mets that features Vientos and might be a good deal for Contreras and Robertson. But I betcha the Cubs are taking pictures increased than that if it is a combo commerce (and/or the non-Vientos items are actually vital, and the Mets need the Cubs to drop that half).
To even be clear, getting Vientos as the headliner in a deal for JUST a rental catcher is just not a foul deal. The Mets in all probability DO have some good motive to push again in opposition to it if that is what the Cubs are looking for. But do I assume it is walk-away-from-the-table egregious? Heck no.
So, in sum, that is my studying of the state of affairs: the Mets need Contreras and Robertson from the Cubs for Vientos+. The Cubs would need an especially strong package deal (might or might not embrace Vientos) for each of these gamers. Alternatively, the Cubs may be prepared to take Vientos (or equal) in a deal for Contreras (or Robertson), alone, however they don’t seem to be going to be pushed into that simply because the Mets try to make it appear to be that is an unattainable ask.
Ultimately, this all may go nowhere. A group may name the Cubs with an awesome provide for Robertson, and the Cubs should take it. The Padres may resolve it is time to pull the set off on a giant Contreras-Ian Happ take care of the Cubs. Or another group may come out and shock everybody. So good, and so good.
But this public dance from the Mets? I see it. I see it. I know what it is about.
And if I am simply going loopy, properly, the subsequent two days must be enjoyable. The 41-hour Blogathon hasn’t even began but!