I do not pay nearer consideration to native reporting or nationwide reporting roughly than the different. I do not suppose one is, in the combination, higher than the different. Rather, I like to consider the implications of reporting that comes from one space or each, or the timing of every, or what sourcing may be informing the reporting. I identical to to think about all of it collectively in live performance.
Which I point out up high as a result of I discovered it extremely fascinating that we now have a native Chicago author predicting free agent shortstop Carlos Correa to wind up with the Chicago Cubs.
Gordon Wittenmyer kicks off his predictions piece as we speak at NBC Sports Chicago with a prolonged explainer on why it has been straightforward to surmise from the exterior that the Cubs are very critical about the shortstop market this offseason. I do know some Cubs followers suppose the Cubs are by no means critical about high free brokers (a weird place, when you ask me, and when you simply take a look at the final decade), however it appears fairly clear that they’re maintaining their choices open this offseason. Very open.
So when Wittenmyer will get to predicting what occurs with Correa, he lays all of it on the market:
Wait, what? The Cubs? THE CUBS?!! Despite alerts from crew sources that they do not have an urge for food for the sort of long-term contract that left them with Jason Heyward a number of years longer than optimum, the Cubs cannot go into subsequent season with out a vital addition to their center infield , particularly with the shift going away subsequent 12 months and all the payroll flexibility they’ve over the subsequent few years.
If Correa was a match for the Cubs final 12 months on a long-term deal (he was), he nonetheless is, as the youngest of the 4 elite shortstops in the market — and with out the qualifying provide that ties the three others to draft- decide compensation. The Cubs have appreciated this man since working him out at Wrigley earlier than the 2012 draft (after they have been poised to take him at No. 6 earlier than he went No. 1 general).
How aggressive does Wittenmyer see the Cubs being (having to be?) to be able to land Correa? The deal he suggests is 9 years and $290 million. Why? Because he (rightly) surmises that Scott Boras may then say Correa – along with the $35.1 million he acquired from the Twins final 12 months – successfully beat Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million cope with the Rangers … by precisely $100,000.
Would the Cubs truly go 9 years? You’d suppose not based mostly on Jed Hoyer’s oft-rumored and frequently-just-about-outright-stated antipathy for offers longer than even 5 years. But if that is what it took to get it executed? And if the deal was crafted in a method to make the tail finish of it much less painful? Yeah, possibly. I are inclined to suppose the Cubs would nonetheless relatively go larger on the AAV over six or seven years, however I’ve to confess, I like that there is a native author even SUGGESTING that the Cubs can be keen to go 9 years on Correa if that is what it took
I do additionally suppose it is worthwhile to notice what Wittenmyer has reported on the Cubs and Correa beforehand. He has by no means been totally poo-poo’ing of the concept that the Cubs may get Correa, however I do not know that I noticed a prediction coming from him.
Last week, at the begin of the GM Meetings, on Correa and the Cubs, he wrote this:
“The Cubs will probably be concerned in the deep finish of the big-name shortstop market this winter, however they haven’t any urge for food for one more Jason Heyward-length contract — and possibly not even a contract for a 12 months or two lower than his eight-year deal Especially given the reality that each one of the Big 4 free agent shortstops are 28 or older. Look for possibly a five-year provide for Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. The Cubs are mentioned to be a critical participant for Carlos Correa, too, however sources, maybe clearly, say he is searching for the longest deal of the group, and that Cubs curiosity could wane in proportion to the variety of years he seeks.”
So, Wittenmyer was listening to that the Cubs have been enthusiastic about Correa, however their lack of curiosity in a long-term deal may foreclose a actual pursuit. That was the “vibe” anyway. Wittenmyer wasn’t alone in laying issues out that manner, and mine hopeful The takeaway was that it was largely a matter of the Cubs wanting to ensure they weren’t opening the offseason by telling the world that they have been open to a super-long deal.
At the shut of the GM Meetings, Wittenmyer once more touched on the Cubs and Correa. His phrases have been in no way inconsistent with what he’d written at the begin of the conferences, however possibly, when you squint, you see a little softening:
“(T)he Cubs might not be fairly able to go all-in this winter, however they’ve actually anted up, they usually’ve acquired their seat at the shortstop desk for some four-stud dealing ….
“Turner and Correa will command the longest-term contracts, if early trade predictions are to be believed, which may dissuade the Cubs off these gamers in proportion to the years it will take, given crew president Jed Hoyer’s distaste for the concept of big- greenback commitments past, roughly, Seiya Suzuki’s five-year deal in March.
“But multiple supply mentioned the Cubs ‘love’ Correa, whom they labored out earlier than his 2012 draft and thought they may have a likelihood to pick out at No. 6 earlier than the Astros took him first. And relying on the years, the Cubs do not seem to have critical concern over Correa’s previous minor-injury/again points (he has performed in 89 % of his crew’s video games the final three seasons).”
So, once more, the size of an anticipated deal may scuttle it, however there’s a sense that the Cubs are critical, and the part ends with a however, hey, the Cubs do actually like Correa, so….
Any likelihood that writing, from the begin of the GM Meetings to the finish of the GM Meetings to as we speak, kinda tracks the refined evolution of issues he was listening to? From in all probability not, okay possibly, nicely truly sure this is attainable? Or am I simply studying manner an excessive amount of into it as a result of I wish to give myself another excuse to be hopeful?
Ultimately, it is simply one other information level, they usually’ve actually added up already. We know that the Cubs critically talked to Carlos Correa and his pre-Boras agent earlier than the lockout final 12 months. There have been rumors out of Minnesota that the Twins feared the Cubs have been getting ready to pounce on Correa. There was Jon Morosi saying individuals ought to count on to listen to the Cubs and Correa linked a lot this offseason. There are the betting odds which will or could not imply something however have the Cubs as the robust favorites for Correa. There is the most up-to-date insider hypothesis that the three groups on Correa are the Cubs, Twins, and Orioles.
Oh, and there is the long-standing incontrovertible fact that Correa makes a lot sense for the Cubs! He’s younger (28), he is lengthy been a high defensive shortstop (can transfer Nico Hoerner to second, the place he is additionally superior), he is acquired a power-discipline combo at the plate, he does not come hooked up to draft decide compensation, he is a chief with a sky excessive baseball IQ, and the Cubs do not produce other center infielders in the system instantly forcing their manner onto the huge league roster.
Yes, I get that signing Correa to a six or seven or eight-year deal comes with threat. It’s a huge swing, with long-lasting penalties. The incontrovertible fact that the Cubs simply yesterday launched Jason Heyward after 12 months seven of his eight 12 months deal is not misplaced on me. But threat, alone, is not a motive to not do one thing. It is a motive to think about it fastidiously… after which attempt to get the finest deal you may get.
Maybe that is what’s taking place with all of this. Maybe the Cubs actually, really need Correa, but in addition wish to make sure that they’ve a likelihood to maneuver the contract in a shorter course. So there’s a dance occurring, publicly and privately. With Boras in the lead on Correa’s facet, it may very well be a very lengthy dance.