Our Thanksgiving Best Bets for All 3 Games

For the newest NFL odds, click on right here.

NFL Picks for Thanksgiving

Click on a recreation to skip forward
Bills vs. Lions
12:30 pm ET
Giants vs. Cowboys
4:30 pm ET
Patriots vs. vikings
8:20 pm ET
Lions +10
Best Book

John Lanfranca: I consider the momentum the Lions are carrying into this recreation is just too a lot to disregard. Their offense has scored 30-plus factors in back-to-back weeks on the highway en route to a few straight outright victories as underdogs.

I discover myself questioning if the Lions had overwhelmed the Dolphins again in Week 8 (a recreation during which that they had a 62% win expectancy within the second half), what the unfold of this recreation can be. The Lions have been 3.5 level canine at dwelling versus the Dolphins in that contest; Are we certain the Bills are a full six factors higher than Miami? Since that recreation, the Lions’ move protection ranks eighth in DVOA and the protection as a complete is clearly enjoying its greatest soccer.

In distinction, the Bills have some points they’re working by way of. Their protection, coping with the damage bug, has given up 25.3 factors per recreation during the last three. Buffalo has did not cowl in 4 straight video games now, because it’s being priced as one of many high offenses within the NFL, however ranks solely nineteenth in move offense DVOA over that point interval (behind the Jets and Jaguars).

Not solely is that this line inflated, however the Lions are enjoying with a brand new degree of confidence, carrying all the momentum into their nationwide highlight recreation in their very own constructing. Home underdogs of greater than a landing are 6-0 in opposition to the unfold this season. I anticipate a aggressive recreation – play Detroit +10 alternate line -120 at Caesars (as much as -125).

Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Best Book

Nick Giffen: Anytime I can get Dawson Knox at +200 or longer, I’m taking it.

Knox has taken over 80% of snaps over his final 5 video games. He caught all seven of his targets at this similar location (Ford Field) in opposition to an analogous poor move protection (Browns) final week.

Since the Lions cannot cease anybody, why not decide the man with the very best projection worth vs. odds? This is the very best worth on this recreation per projections, and my colleagues Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon agree.

Fair worth for this Knox play is +195.

Jamaal Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)
Best Book

Ricky Henne: This one is a no brainer for me, particularly at what I think about favorable odds.

Not solely does Jamaal Williams lead the NFL with 12 touchdowns, however he is on hearth proper now. He’s scored 4 touchdowns within the Lions’ final two video games, and 6 of their final 4.

Detroit loves feeding him in goal-to-go conditions. He leads the league with 19 carries contained in the five-yard line, whereas additionally pacing the league in carries contained in the pink zone (33) and the 10-yard line (25).

This will likely be considered one of Williams’ harder exams all season. Buffalo bows up within the pink zone, with opponents scoring a landing solely 45.15% of the time, which is third greatest within the NFL. That does not scare me, although. Few gamers within the league match Williams in each alternative and productiveness. Detroit will get the ball in his palms 47.2% of the time within the pink zone, and the outcomes communicate for themselves.

If you take pleasure in betting gamers to attain a number of touchdowns, this is perhaps a spot to take action as Williams has a number of touchdowns in 5 of the six video games he is scored in. Personally, I discover that to be a dangerous proposition usually, which is why my focus is on a single anytime landing.

Considering his success, I’m betting this week after week till the wheels fall off.

» Return to the desk of contents «

Giants +10 (wager to +7.5)
Best Book

Blake Krass: The Cowboys are coming off of an absolute trouncing of the Vikings, whereas the Giants are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Lions. That units up an ideal bounce-back spot for New York.

Daniel Jones has been unbelievable in spots like this. He is 14-7 ATS (66.6%) in his profession on the highway. He can also be an unimaginable 7-0 ATS on brief relaxation since 2020, the very best of any QB within the NFL. As a crew, the Giants are a exceptional 5-1 ATS and SU as underdogs this season.

The Cowboys haven’t been profitable on Thanksgiving. They are 1-10 ATS of their final 11 Thanksgiving video games and Dak Prescott particularly is 1-4 ATS.

The Giants additionally match up moderately properly. While the Cowboys protection is elite, they’re tenth in defensive rush DVOA, which pales compared to their No. 2 rating in defensive move DVOA. That advantages the run-first Giants. I anticipate each groups to lean on the run, limiting possessions and giving the canine a greater probability to cowl.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network function that enables customers to robotically load their wager slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Michael Gallup Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book

Nick Bretwisch: Simply put, this can be a unbelievable matchup for each participant on the Cowboys, however extra so the receivers out huge because the Giants’ high cowl corners, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, are more likely to be dominated out.

The Giants run plenty of Cover-1 man protection, a protection the place Gallup has been focused at a considerably larger fee – by way of targets per routes run – since Dak Prescott returned.

The adjusted anticipated whole yards mannequin predicts Gallup for 50 receiving yards, however with a recreation script that might very properly get out of hand and make the Cowboys let off the gasoline, I’d set the extra seemingly, conservative final result round 44 receiving yards.

With the conservative projection, we’re nonetheless taking a look at a 13% edge on Gallup going over this whole. Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Micah Parsons Over 0.25 Sacks (-165)
Best Book

Cody Goggin: Parsons has the potential to have considered one of his greatest profession video games on Thanksgiving.

The final time these two groups performed, Parsons wasn’t in a position to put up any sacks, however he did have six pressures, 4 hurries and two quarterback hits. This season, Parsons is third within the league with 49 pressures, which he has transformed into 10 sacks.

The Giants offensive line is banged up at virtually each spot. Evan Neal will likely be out as soon as once more, which he’s most likely grateful for after he allowed three sacks within the final matchup. Jon Feliciano, who has been beginning at heart, has been dominated out with a neck damage, in addition to guards Shane Lemieux and Joshua Ezeudu.

Left deal with Andrew Thomas has arguably been the Giants’ greatest participant this season, however he has been questionable this week with an sickness. It’s seemingly he performs, however he might not be at 100% — not ideally suited for considered one of your hardest exams of the season. Backup deal with Tyre Phillips can also be questionable with a neck damage, however he was a restricted participant in follow on Tuesday.

Assuming Thomas performs, that would depart the Giants with both a backup or third stringer at proper deal with, a backup heart and a third-string left guard. New York has already not been nice at move blocking this season, however issues might get even worse for Daniel Jones, who has the second-highest common time to throw within the league.

Dallas has the best stunt fee and the best strain fee, in keeping with Pro Football Focus’ Arjun Menon. Meanwhile, New York has allowed the second most pressures on stunts.

I do know that laying -165 is steep, however there’s nonetheless plenty of worth right here. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will likely be throwing all the things he has on the Giants, and Parsons is an all-world expertise who will have the ability to money in on New York’s damage misfortunes.

At -0.25, even only a half sack will get this wager dwelling. I might take something at -110 as much as 1 sack. With a line at 0.25, I might wager this to -190.

Lawrence Cager Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)
Best Book

Nick Giffen: Since New York’s bye in Week 9, Cager has been the Giants’ TE1, averaging 70% of snaps.

If Dallas’ stout protection is weak anyplace, it is by way of the air. Specifically, tight ends give this unit hassle. The Cowboys are fifteenth in DVOA in opposition to the place and permit the fifth-most targets per recreation.

I mission +618 as honest worth for 18.4% anticipated ROI.

» Return to the desk of contents «

Patriots +2.5
Best Book

Simon Hunter: What a present from the playing gods: Kirk Cousins ​​in primetime on Thanksgiving.

How can we not wager the Patriots? The Vikings are 8-2 straight-up (SU) however have a destructive level differential.

Bill Belichick has confronted 11 groups in November or later with a file over .500 and a destructive level differential. Those groups are 1-9 SU and 0-10 in opposition to the unfold.

Belichick is a genius, which everyone knows, in the case of shutting down subpar quarterbacks. No defensive thoughts has performed it higher. He made Zach Wilson lose his job. Now, give Belichick a top-three defensive position and we’ll see what he can do.

New England has not given up a landing in its final two video games, which is unhealthy information for the Vikings.

Minnesota will likely be with out All Pro offensive deal with Christian Darrisaw, who would be the third lacking starter on the road. We noticed the backups get torched final week in opposition to the Cowboys, who I’ve graded as a barely higher defensive crew than the Patriots.

Look for New England to repeat that Dallas recreation plan of dashing 4 and dropping everybody else into protection.

On the Patriots offense, I like Rhamondre Stevenson to have an enormous recreation and for them to manage the clock.

This quantity may get again to +3 for the reason that public will likely be everywhere in the Vikings. I’ll take it so long as it is greater than 2.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network function that enables customers to robotically load their wager slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Under 42.5 (to 41)
Best Book

John Lanfranca: Pretty easy handicap of the full on Thursday night time.

The Vikings protection was embarrassed final Sunday, and I’m anticipating a bounce-back efficiency from this unit. They have been stable in opposition to the run all season, rating thirteenth in DVOA with solely 4.4 yards allowed per carry. The solution to assault this Minnesota protection is thru the air, and the Patriots merely do not need the power to capitalize.

Mac Jones has 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions; the one three quarterbacks who’ve a decrease passer score – who have not been benched – are Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield and Kenny Pickett. The Patriots offense has scored touchdowns on solely two of their previous 39 offensive possessions (worst within the NFL). When they attain the pink zone, they rank thirty first in landing scoring effectivity.

In distinction, the Patriots protection has allowed a landing on simply 13.9% of opponents’ possessions this season, which is second within the NFL. Their strain fee on opposing quarterbacks is 36.2% (third) and Kirk Cousins ​​has not fared properly when bothered. Cousins’ passer score drops from 95.9 when stored clear to 64.4 when pressured.

With each defenses having the matchup benefit, I’ll gladly play the beneath.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network function that enables customers to robotically load their wager slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

KJ Osborn Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+380)
Best Book

Nick Giffen: I’m not in love with primetime Kirk Cousins, but when there’s anyplace he’ll be sufficient, it is brief balls over the center.

Cousins ​​is best than league common on passes thrown to the middle-third of the sphere — 20 yards or fewer — in keeping with Next Gen Stats. New England is weakest in opposition to passes beneath 15 yards in the course of the sphere, per FO DVOA, so this can be a excellent match as Osborn has an aDOT of 8.5.

Osborn has 9 touchdowns in 27 video games, which equates to +200. I acquired him at +440 earlier than the road moved, and as you already know, we had luck with the picks that resulted in 40 over the previous week (Davante Adams +140, Jalen Hurts +140, Marcus Mariota +240 and Curtis Samuel +340 ).

» Return to the desk of contents «

Leave a Comment