Pac-12 South Football: Did He Stay or Did He Go?

This is our second half which groups within the Pac-12 are returning essentially the most manufacturing from final season. If you missed half one which examined the outdated Pac-12 North colleges you’ll find it proper right here. The intro to that article additionally explains how I calculated the manufacturing scores talked about all through this piece as properly. So if you happen to’re confused, examine that out and are available again.

Arizona Wildcats

Total 2022 Production Score: 1,803.9 (eighth in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 0.0%Graduated- 16.4%Returning- 60.6%Transfer- 23.1%

Biggest Losses: WR Dorian Singer- 100.0 (Transfer), DL Kyon Barrs- 77.5 (Transfer), CB Christian Roland-Wallce- 74.3 (Transfer), Edge Hunter Echols- 71.0 (Grad), S Christian Young- 68.8 (Grad)

Best Returners: WR Jacob Cowing- 98.5, WR Tetairoa McMillan- 82.1, S Jaxen Turner- 75.5, RB Michael Wiley- 73.3, QB Jayden de Laura- 68.5

I’m certain that Jedd Fisch shouldn’t be thrilled with USC proper about now contemplating their 3 greatest losses by way of productiveness from final 12 months’s group all transferred to the Trojans. That’s a part of why the one group that misplaced extra of their productiveness to switch this offseason was Stanford which underwent a training change.

The cabinet is not fully naked for Arizona although. They return simply over 60% of their manufacturing from final 12 months which is nice for seventh within the convention. Most of that comes on the offensive ability place spots. Having 1st group all-Pac-12 WR Dorian Singer depart is unlucky however the duo of Cowing and McMillan can be proper up there for one of many handful of finest receiver combos within the convention subsequent 12 months. Quarterback Jayden de Laura is the last word curler coaster journey however when at his finest he may be electrical. Throw in a very nice season from RB Michael Wiley (6.9 ypc) and the expertise is there for a dynamic offense.

Of course you additionally must subject a protection. The Wildcats weren’t good on that facet of the ball final 12 months and now lose 6 of their 7 most efficient gamers. Only security Jaxen Turner is again as somebody who could possibly be referred to as an above common starter. It’s going to take some new faces immediately producing or some surprising leaps to be able to even get this unit as much as common subsequent season.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Total 2022 Production Score: 1,781.6 (ninth in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 0.0%Graduated- 41.8%Returning- 41.8%Transfer- 16.4%

Biggest Losses: RB Xazavian Valladay- 100.0 (Grad), DL Nesta Jade Silvera- 98.2 (Grad), DL Tautala Pesefea Jr- 87.0 (Grad), S Khoury Bethley- 67.0 (Grad), LB Kyle Soelle- 64.7 (Grad)

Best Returners: WR Elijah Badger- 82.4, S Chris Edmonds- 69.9, WR Giovanni Sanders- 56.4, OL Emmit Bohle- 50.3, Edge Anthony Cooper- 48.9

Based on class distribution Arizona State ought to have anticipated to be a contender in 2022 however after all as an alternative they fired their coach a number of video games into the 12 months. The Sun Devils misplaced essentially the most manufacturing within the convention to commencement and it actually wasn’t shut. 7 of their 9 most efficient gamers final season ended up graduating together with 4 starters on the defensive entrance seven which now has to retool.

Losing essentially the most productiveness to commencement and the 4th most to switch after all results in the end result of Arizona State returning a decrease share of their productiveness than another group within the Pac-12. It appears to be like like WR Elijah Badger is usually a official #1 receiver. That’s good. Safety Chris Edmonds was clearly above common. cool But solely 4 of their top-15 in productiveness are coming again for ASU.

New head coach Kenny Dillingham has restocked the cabinet by way of the switch portal and that strategy could repay. But it was fully crucial as a result of nearly all that was left within the cabinet when he acquired there have been some mouse droppings and a can of baked beans from the Nixon administration.

Colorado Buffaloes

Total 2022 Production Score: 1,507.8 (twelfth in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 0.0%Graduated- 33.0%Returning- 55.2%Transfer- 11.8%

Biggest Losses: OL Casey Roddick- 59.3 (Transfer), OL Tommy Brown- 53.3 (Grad), LB Josh Chandler-Semedo- 51.2 (Grad), CB Kaylin Moore (Transfer)- 48.2

Best Returners: DL Jalen Sami- 68.9, DL Na’im Rodman- 56.5, CB Nikko Reed- 53.3, WR Montana Lemonious-Craig- 52.3, S Trevor Woods- 51.8

It needs to be no shock to anybody that by this measure Colorado completed final within the Pac-12 in complete manufacturing in 2022. That led to them having one of many worst P5 seasons in latest reminiscence and bringing in Deion Sanders as the brand new head coach. He has revamped the roster in brief order by way of the switch portal however that is doable partly as a result of in some way this was truly a veteran Colorado roster.

The Buffaloes graduated 1/third of their manufacturing from final 12 months which was 2nd highest within the convention. That consists of 15 seniors who noticed taking part in time final 12 months and 13 that have been a serious a part of the rotation. The chances are high that the majority if not all of these gamers can be changed by somebody of equal or better expertise from the portal.

There is a few expertise returning significantly alongside the defensive position the place 2 of Colorado’s 3 highest manufacturing gamers have been final 12 months. That’s a great place to have comparatively high-end veteran expertise. Of course they misplaced their 2nd and 4th most efficient gamers alongside the offensive line the place there can be a void of returning expertise.

UCLA Bruins

Total 2022 Production Score: 2,244.8 (2nd in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 13.9%Graduated- 30.2%Returning- 54.8%Transfer- 1.2%

Biggest Losses: WR Jake Bobo- 99.3 (Grad), RB Zach Charbonnet- 92.0 (Draft), OL Atonio Mafi- 92.0 (Grad), S Stephan Blaylock- 90.4 (Grad), OL Jon Gaines II- 88.1 (Draft)

Best Returners: LB Darius Muasau- 80.2, OL Duke Clemens- 76.0, Edge Laiatu Latu- 72.3, Edge Gabriel Murphy- 64.7, OL Garrett Digiorgio- 62.4

Even although UCLA is returning the next share of their manufacturing than Colorado or Stanford, you could possibly argue given how dangerous these groups have been that no group loses extra high finish expertise than the Bruins. UCLA’s 7 most efficient gamers from 2022 are all shifting on both on account of commencement or early entry to the NFL. That would not even embrace QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson whose PFF grades weren’t superb regardless of some good stats.

There’s nonetheless excellent news for the Bruins. They had a number of gamers that thought-about the NFL however selected to return again together with their edge rush trio of Laiatu Latu and the Murphy twins (Gabriel and Grayson). That group needs to be the perfect within the convention in 2023. UCLA additionally was a transparent winner within the portal as they simply about tied Washington for the bottom share of their manufacturing to depart through switch.

Still, dropping your QB, RB, finest WR, and three beginning offensive linemen can be a problem for Chip Kelly and the Bruins to interchange on offense regardless of a number of incoming key items by way of the portal. Things are a little bit higher on protection the place the beginning security tandem is gone however 18 of their 23 high contributors return on that facet.

USC Trojans

Total 2022 Production Score: 2,321.1 (1st in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 11.8%Graduated- 20.2%Returning- 64.5%Transfer- 3.5%

Biggest Losses: CB Mekhi Blackmon- 100.0 (Draft), Edge Tuli Tuipulotu- 100.0 (Draft), OL Brett Neilon- 98.7 (Grad), DL Brandon Pili- 75.7 (Grad), WR Jordan Addison- 73.0 (Draft)

Best Returners: QB Caleb Williams- 100.0, S Calen Bullock- 100.0, OL Jonah Monheim- 100.0, DL Tyrone Taleni- 93.1, OL Justin Dedich- 89.4

No different group loses a number of guys who have been the most efficient within the convention at their place however then once more no different group returns a number of such gamers. If you wish to look on the brilliant facet as a Trojan fan you could possibly say that USC returns 6 of their 9 most efficient gamers from a group that was one recreation away from the CFP. If you wished to be extra unfavourable you could possibly say that USC returns simply 6 of their 13 most efficient gamers from a group that misplaced to Tulane to finish the season.

Coming into final 12 months the offensive line was seen as USC’s weak point however they held up pretty properly and now lose 3 starters. That stands out as the hardest place to interchange however USC has already imported instantaneous plug and play starters by way of the switch portal there in addition to different key spots. But gone as properly are star move rusher Tuli Tuipulotu and ability place standouts WR Jordan Addison and RB Travis Dye.

It can be unimaginable for USC to have a nasty offense with reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams on the helm. And whereas Addison is gone he will get again his 2 by way of 4 receivers with Brenden Rice, Tahj Washington, and Mario Williams. RBs Austin Jones and Raleek Brown are again. The offense will nonetheless be good. The protection has a number of superb items however it had a number of superb items (and are dropping a number of) final 12 months and have been nonetheless dangerous total. I’m certain Alex Grinch will determine it out although…

Utah Utes

Total 2022 Production Score: 2,092.0 (4th in Pac-12)

2023 Production Distribution: Early Entry 14.8%Graduated- 6.2%Returning- 71.8%Transfer- 7.2%

Biggest Losses: TE Dalton Kincaid- 100.0 (Draft), RB Micah Bernard- 66.0 (Transfer), CB Clark Phillips III- 64.3 (Draft), OL Paul Maile- 60.5 (Transfer), LB Gabe Reid- 58.6 (Draft)

Best Returners: WR Devaughn Vele- 96.7, DL Junior Tafuna- 86.8, OL Braeden Daniels- 84.0, OL Keaton Bills- 82.6, S Cole Bishop- 81.1

Under Kyle Whittingham the Utes have grow to be the mannequin of consistency and that should not change going into 2023. Utah narrowly completed behind the Huskies and are 2nd within the convention in share of their productiveness that is returning. That comes regardless of Utah truly dropping a number of key items on offense to the switch portal with RB Micah Bernard and C Paul Maile leaving. The Utes additionally misplaced Dalton Kincaid and Clark Phillips as clear 1st group all-conference guys to the draft.

The huge key for Utah is that they’ve the bottom share of their group having graduated of anybody within the convention. Utah was constructed for a possible huge run in 2023 and they’re going to have the prospect to make it. Outside of Kincaid the following 8 most efficient Utes from 2022 are coming again together with beginning QB Cam Rising. That would not embrace preseason all-Pac-12 TE Brant Kuithe whose damage close to the start of the 12 months opened the door for Kincaid to interrupt out and declare for the draft. That group additionally has 3 beginning offensive linemen so count on Utah to as soon as once more be dominant on the line of scrimmage like they nearly all the time are.


Final Totals

Lowest % of Production Early Entry to Draft: 1. Arizona, ASU, Cal, Colorado, Washington, WSU- 0.0%, 7. OSU- 5.9%, 8. Oregon- 6.4%, 9. Stanford- 10.3%, 10. USC- 11.8%, 11. UCLA- 13.9%, 12. Utah- 14.8%

Lowest % of Production Graduated: 1. Utah- 6.2%, 2. Cal- 7.2%, 3. Stanford- 12.5%, 4. Arizona- 16.4%, 5. USC- 20.2%, 6. Oregon- 22.4%, 7. OSU- 23.6%, 8. Washington- 26%, 9. WSU- 29.8%, 10. UCLA- 30.2%, 11. Colorado- 33%, 12. ASU- 41.8%

Lowest % of Production Transferred: 1. Washington- 1.2%, 2. UCLA- 1.2%, 3. USC- 3.5%, 4. OSU- 5.4%, 5. Utah- 7.2%, 6. Oregon- 9.4%, 7. Colorado- 11.8%, 8. .WSU- 14%, 9. ASU- 16.4%, 10. Cal- 22%, 11. Arizona- 23.1%, 12. Stanford- 28.3%

Highest % of Production Returning: 1. Washington- 72.8%, 2. Utah- 71.8%, 3. Cal- 70.8%, 4. Oregon State- 65.2%, 5. USC- 64.5%, 6. Oregon- 61.9%, 7. Arizona- 60.6%, 8. WSU- 56.2%, 9. Colorado- 55.2%, 10. UCLA- 54.8%, 11. Stanford- 48.8%, 12. ASU- 41.8%

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