The begin of the NFL and Las Vegas Raiders season is simply across the nook which suggests we’re formally in previews season and Mike Tanier at Football Outsiders put collectively probably the greatest ones within the enterprise. To preview the Football Outsiders Almanac, they had been variety sufficient to reply 5 of my questions with the information from the ebook to present Raider Nation slightly glimpse of what to anticipate from the Silver and Black in 2022.
To get the complete almanac, comply with this hyperlink.
1. The Raiders had been a playoff workforce final yr and made some vital additions this offseason, most notably Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, however additionally they misplaced or swapped out a few key defenders in Casey Hayward and Yannick Ngakoue. How has the offseason modified their projected win/loss complete?
Our projection for the Raiders comes out virtually precisely at .500: 8.6 wins. One motive why that will appear low is as a result of statistically, the 2021 Raiders didn’t appear like a 10-7 playoff workforce. Our “estimated wins” system for 2021, for instance, means that they’d the stat profile of an 8.4 win workforce. They exceeded that for a wide range of causes that I’m certain Raiders followers keep in mind, together with a pair of video games in opposition to COVID-impacted opponents in December (Browns all the way down to all their backups, Carson Wentz making an attempt to play the Unvaccinated Hero).
So the Raiders improved this offseason, however they’d extra want for enchancment than their report suggests, and so they additionally play in a convention the place many different groups additionally improved.
2. Speaking of Adams, how do you venture his manufacturing will evaluate to his days in Green Bay, and the way will his presence influence Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow?
We venture a 108-1,338-9 stat line for Adams. One motive that will sound modest is as a result of Renfrow and Waller might get extra of the goal share than Guy Aaron Rodgers Doesn’t Really Like #1 and #2 received in Green Bay. Also, our KUBIAK projections value in the potential of damage, so no participant is actually projected for 17 video games; most gamers are projected for one thing like “15.8 video games.”
As for Adams’ affect on the others, the boilerplate reply is that he’ll open up extra alternatives beneath. And I’m certain he’ll. But Henry Ruggs and later Desean Jackson every did a good job of maintaining safeties trustworthy in 2021. Derek Carr tried 90 passes of 20+ Air Yards final yr. Only Tom Brady tried extra!
I feel Adams will make Carr a way more environment friendly deep passer. That may result in a “rising tides” state of affairs for everybody’s offensive numbers.
3. Same query as above however with Jones and Max Crosby?
Jones is considerably extra probably to attract double-teams away from Crosby than Yannick Ngakoue was. I additionally suppose Patrick Graham ought to do a wonderful job scheming to get these guys sacks.
4. Building off of that, Las Vegas’ secondary goes to be younger and is anticipated to be the weak spot of their protection. Have they executed sufficient to enhance their go rush to mitigate that problem, and what are your expectations for the Raiders’ defensive backs?
That’s the rub. It’s not simply the cornerback corps, it is the off-ball linebackers and the inside defensive position. They all venture to be abnormal at greatest, leaving the Raiders with a few league-average protection. The best option to neutralize an excellent go rush is to remain “forward of the sticks.” Teams ought to have the ability to use the operating and quick passing sport to do exactly that.
5. How does Josh McDaniels’ system mesh with Derek Carr’s ability set from an analytical perspective?
McDaniels has excelled over time at adapting his system to totally different QBs: Young Brady (Bombs away!), Old Brady (ultra-technical quick passing!) Mac Jones (Running and screens!), even Cam Newton/Matt Cassel/Tim Tebow (Mix in designed runs!). Carr is a positive resolution maker and short-to-intermediate passer, and I feel McDaniels has loads of ideas that Carr can run efficiently (as did Jon Gruden, who beloved decisive short-to-intermediate passers).
(*5*)One factor I anticipate to see is plenty of 12 personnel with Waller and Foster Moreau in an effort to maintain defenses in base, get probably the most from the operating sport and create play-action alternatives. Oh, and the additional tight finish may assist out if, say, the correct sort out struggles. It needs to be an efficient offense. It simply is probably not an offense able to win plenty of AFC shootouts.