SEC college football picks, odds in Week 4: Tennessee, Arkansas cover spreads in crucial rivalry games

The ultimate Saturday in September consists of some scintillating matchups in the SEC which might be certain to have convention and division title ramifications down the highway. In one of many headlining games of Week 4, No. 20 Florida heads to Rocky Top to tackle No. 11 Tennessee in the SEC on CBS Game of the Week. The two rivals want to vault again into the nationwide image, and there is not any higher place to make a press release than in entrance of greater than 100,000 followers inside Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Elsewhere, no. 10 Arkansas and No. 23 Texas A&M tee it up at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in an outdated Southwest Conference rivalry sport that was rekindled in the SEC when the Aggies joined the convention in 2012.

Let’s take a spin across the convention and make some picks for the games that includes SEC groups in Week 4.

Appetizer: Styles make fights

The rivalry between the Gators and Volunteers will likely be determined by how the sport is definitely performed. The Volunteers offense is constructed to crank up the tempo, put on down a protection and drive each sport right into a shootout. Florida, then again, is the second-best speeding staff in the nation in phrases of yards per try (6.42), and has a quarterback in Anthony Richardson who hasn’t tossed a landing go but this season. Richardson has, nevertheless, scored 3 times on the bottom and is averaging 5.58 yards per carry (together with sack yardage).

What has flown below the radar is the work of Tennessee’s protection this season. The Vols rank third in the SEC in tackles for loss per sport (7.33) and sacks per sport (2.67). That success will likely be examined towards a Gators squad that ranks second in the SEC in tackles for loss allowed (8) and sacks allowed (2).

If Tennessee dictates fashion, it is exhausting to think about a situation the place Richardson and Co. make this a lot of a battle.

Main course: Are the Aggies again?

The reply is an emphatic “no.” Last Saturday’s win over No. 25 Miami was good, however many of the issues that existed previous to the quarterback change from Haynes King to Max Johnson nonetheless exist regardless of the win over the Hurricanes. The Aggies are tied with Navy for the fewest purple zone journeys in the nation (3). That’s proper, Iowa’s offense — which has been the punchline to infinite jokes throughout the nation — has been to the purple zone extra (4) than Texas A&M. If there may be an oz of fine information baked into that stat it is that the offense has cashed in all three of these visits into touchdowns.

The apparent rebuttal from Aggie defenders is that it has scored from exterior of the purple zone. That is true. It has a complete of 5 touchdowns from exterior the go zone, bringing its grand whole to … anticipate it … eight. That’s adequate to rank final in the SEC and No. 102 in the nation, tied with a number of groups together with famous offense juggernaut UConn.

Texas A&M obtained a win over a ranked staff final weekend and Johnson did not flip the ball over. That’s nice. But all it did was stop this season from spiraling into a complete catastrophe.

The Georgia quarterback is (+1200) at Caesars Sportsbook to win college football’s most prestigious particular person award, and that’s, by far, the very best worth wager on the board. Bennett has 5 touchdowns, zero interceptions and has the second-best passer ranking in the SEC at 183.48. He is fifth nationally and No. 1 in the SEC in completion proportion on passing downs (73.1%), and ranks eighth nationally in yards per try (11.13) when the Bulldogs are 7 or extra yards away from a primary down.

The most essential stat for Bennett, nevertheless, is that he is accomplished 0.0% of his passes in the fourth quarter — and that is as a result of he hasn’t tried one. He would possibly throw one this week towards Kent State, but it surely’s unlikely that it’ll imply an terrible lot. Bennett is not a sport supervisor. He’s a difference-maker. More importantly, although, is that offensive coordinator Todd Monken has made a concerted effort to run the offense by means of his veteran quarterback.

Picks

Straight up: 29-7 | Against the unfold: 14-16-1
*Previous picks had been made on Instagram since SEC Smothered & Covered begins in Week 3

Kent State at No. 1 Georgia

The development of Bennett not making an attempt a go in the fourth quarter will proceed in what will likely be a blowout win over the Golden Flashes. Coach Kirby Smart will name off the canines early realizing that the meat of the SEC schedule is true across the nook. He is aware of that championship-level depth is required to win a nationwide title, and he’ll use this chance to construct much more depth. That will likely be sufficient to maintain the sport inside 45 factors. Pick: Kent State (+46)

Featured Game | Auburn Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers

Penn State’s defensive entrance dominated Auburn’s offensive line final weekend, which performed an enormous half in the blowout over the Tigers. Missouri cannot actually try this, and that will likely be an enormous issue in this matchup. It’s no secret that Auburn’s quarterback place is a large number. TJ Finley is banged up, Robby Ashford is not constant in the passing sport and Zach Calzada can not seem to discover the sphere. Those points, although, will drive coach Bryan Harsin to get working backs Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter into the sport plan in all kinds of how. That’ll be sufficient to get a win, and I’ll reluctantly decide Auburn to cover as effectively. Pick: Auburn (-7)

Just once I begin to purchase Bulldogs inventory, they go to Death Valley and fall to underdog LSU. I’m going to purchase extra towards Bowling Green, although. Quarterback Will Rogers will mild up a go protection that ranks final in the MAC (345.7 yards per sport) and has let opposing quarterbacks full 71.2% of his passes. The large unfold scares me a bit, however not sufficient to stroll the plank on Mike Leach’s Bulldogs. Pick: Mississippi State (-30)

no 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee

Featured Game | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators

It is unimaginable to belief Richardson in a shootout, and that is precisely what Tennessee’s offense — led by quarterback Hendon Hooker — will do on Saturday afternoon. The underrated Volunteers protection will create sufficient havoc performs to maintain the Gators off schedule, which is able to spell catastrophe for a Gators offense that is not a risk by means of the air in any respect. The occasion on Rocky Top after beating Florida for the primary time since 2016 will likely be legendary. Pick: Tennessee (-10.5)

Featured Game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Are you shopping for into the Rebels but? You ought to. Coach Lane Kiffin has confirmed by means of three games that the muse of the offense is its stellar run sport led by Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins, and Tulsa’s porous rush protection (159 yards per sport) could have an extremely troublesome time slowing down this freight prepare. That, coupled with a wildly underrated protection, will likely be greater than sufficient for Kiffin’s crew to cruise. Pick Ole Miss (-21)

Featured Game | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

This sport screams “backdoor cover.” Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has mixed with freshman Dane Key to create one of the vital explosive offenses in latest reminiscence in Lexington, Kentucky, and coach Mark Stoops is aware of that will likely be a key to his success shifting ahead. Because of that, anticipate Stoops to place this one in cruise management early in the second half. After all, he is aware of a showdown at Ole Miss is looming subsequent week and can need his staff to be at 100% for subsequent week’s large sport. Pick: Northern Illinois (+25.5)

no 10 Arkansas at No. 23 Texas A&M

Featured Game | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas ranks third in the SEC in third-down conversions (48.89%), which signifies that it might replicate the identical sport plan that Appalachian State used towards the Aggies two weeks in the past and personal the time of possession battle. However, it’s going to have the ability to execute higher with the SEC’s main rusher, Raheim Sanders (146.67 yards per sport), and dual-threat bruiser KJ Jefferson at quarterback. The Aggies will not have the ability to money in the few scoring alternatives that it will get, and the Razorbacks will win this one outright. Pick: Arkansas (+2.5)

The Crimson Tide have not found out stretch the sphere deep on a constant foundation, and the Commodores will present the proper tune-up earlier than they attain the meat of the SEC schedule. The ‘Dores are giving up 274 yards per sport by means of the air, so anticipate Young to return out sizzling and construct an enormous lead. Vandy has sufficient offensive weapons to maintain this one inside 40 factors, although, even when we’ve got to sweat out a possible backdoor cover. Pick: Vanderbilt (+40.5)

I’m nonetheless not utterly bought on LSU’s offensive line, but it surely definitely regarded higher final week towards Mississippi State. New Mexico is averaging 2.67 sacks per sport, and that’ll be adequate to drive LSU behind the sticks and into punting conditions greater than anticipated. Plus, anticipate extra from Tigers working again John Emery Jr. after his first sport in practically two years final week. He’ll have success but in addition drain the clock and forestall his staff from overlaying. Pick: New Mexico (+31)

Featured Game | South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Charlotte 49ers

Everything went unsuitable for the Gamecocks final week in the loss to Georgia, however Charlotte will present the proper alternative to get proper earlier than the remainder of the SEC schedule will get cranked up. The 49ers go protection is atrocious (320.5 yards per sport), and coach Shane Beamer will look to get quarterback Spencer Rattler as snug as potential earlier than we change the calendar to October. Pick: South Carolina (-22)

Which college football picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 4, and which Top 25 favourite will go down exhausting? Visit SportsLine to see which groups will win and cover the unfold — all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned greater than $3,300 in revenue over the previous six-plus seasons — and discover out.

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