Week 3 is right here, and the third week of each faculty soccer season is seemingly stuffed with potential land mines with the beginning of convention play looming. Below, I’ll element 4 of the trickiest situational spots I circled for Saturday’s early video games.
It’s key to take a look at a staff’s opponents the week earlier than and week after to get an concept of the place any potential flat spots would possibly pop up.
Other elements additionally warrant consideration; it isn’t pure science. There’s an artwork and really feel to utilizing situational spots in a single’s handicapping.
Ultimately, the present quantity nonetheless reigns supreme. However, a superb or unhealthy spot might sway me someway on a wager I’m on the fence for.
Additionally, it isn’t at all times concerning the pregame market. There are occasions once I imagine a staff will take its foot off the fuel a bit ahead of traditional with an vital sport on deck, which may create a possible wagering alternative within the second half and/or stay aspect or complete markets.
Understanding depth, coach motivation and staff damage conditions additionally come into play, particularly early on within the season when a staff may not wish to reveal a lot of the playbook in opposition to an inferior opponent.
Now, let’s dive into 4 of the hardest situational spots for Week 3’s early video games.
Noon ET · FOX
After a 2-0 begin, the Sooners will head to Lincoln previous to its Big 12 opener to take on a reeling Nebraska staff that fired head coach Scott Frost earlier within the week.
The quantitative influence of shedding Frost is a tough factor to estimate. However, I think about it may possibly solely function a constructive based mostly on his on-field decision-making and the general vibe of the staff I sensed.
During the Frost period, Nebraska misplaced extra one-possession video games than every other staff by a large margin. And after an 0-3 against-the-spread begin to the season, he completed his time in Lincoln with a pathetic 7-17 ATS mark as a favourite.
That mentioned, Nebraska did nonetheless thrive as a pup throughout his tenure (12-8-1 ATS), particularly final 12 months in opposition to each ranked foe, together with a seven-point loss on the street as 22-point underdogs in opposition to these identical Sooners.
Personally, I imagine this line is simply too excessive.
The opening low-limit unfold north of two touchdowns was outrageous, however I nonetheless like catching double digits Coming into the season, I projected Nebraska as a tiny favourite (sure, I’m dumb, everyone knows), and the lookahead line just lately sat at Oklahoma -5
Now, Nebraska does get a extreme downgrade after shedding at dwelling to Georgia Southern, however it’s not like Oklahoma was firing on all cylinders final week. The Sooners really trailed, 3-0, within the closing minute of the primary half in opposition to Kent State.
I believe Nebraska will rally round a brand new interim coach and put on a spirited effort. Let’s simply hope the protection remembers find out how to deal with as a result of that is been the largest challenge by a rustic mile.
Noon ET · SEC Network
Can Kentucky keep away from a letdown after its huge street win over Florida? Head coach Mark Stoops has by no means misplaced to an FCS staff (8-0), however he is solely 3-5 ATS with a handful of great scares.
That consists of final 12 months’s Week 3 dwelling sport in opposition to Chattanooga, which got here sandwiched between two SEC contests. In an identical sleepy midday kickoff slot, Kentucky (-33) really trailed after three quarters earlier than rallying for the victory.
Kentucky additionally virtually went down twice to FCS Eastern Kentucky, as 28- and 33-point favorites. In the 2015 assembly, it even wanted to stage a comeback from down 14 within the fourth quarter earlier than ultimately profitable in extra time.
Plus, Kentucky nonetheless has main offensive points.
The line stays a work-in-progress after shedding three paramount items, and star working again Chris Rodriguez remains to be presumably suspended.
The downfield passing assault nonetheless misses the aspect of explosiveness that Wan’Dale Robinson dropped at the desk. After all, Kentucky completed with simply 272 complete yards of offense in opposition to Florida.
Youngstown is not an FCS powerhouse by any stretch. However, the 2-0 Penguins can lean on an intriguing professional prospect in working again Jaleel McLaughlin.
The Penguins have exceeded expectations in these spots just lately with an 8-2 ATS document since 2010. They really pulled off an outright upset at Pittsburgh again in 2012 as 18-point underdogs and got here shut to 3 different shockers in opposition to Illinois and Pitt two different occasions. (together with one extra time loss).
Finally, I doubt Stoops will wish to run this rating up if Kentucky has a snug margin within the second half. He’s not solely conservative by nature with large leads, however he is additionally a Youngstown native with ties to this system.
We’ll should see the place the road opens later within the week, so comply with alongside within the Action Network App to see if I wager something.
1 p.m. ET · ESPN+
It hasn’t been straightforward, however a rebuilding Coastal Carolina squad received its first two video games largely as a result of NFL prospect quarterback Grayson McCall.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has stumbled out of the gates with two straight losses, together with a heartbreaker on a Hail Mary in opposition to FCS Holy Cross final week.
Many folks have seen that end result because of the wild ending, however not as many noticed Coastal Carolina quit almost 500 yards to FCS Gardner-Webb.
Coastal really obtained outplayed statistically and wanted a fourth-quarter landing to take the lead prior to 2 straight Gardner-Webb interceptions on its closing two possessions. Keep in thoughts Holy Cross is a a lot stronger FCS staff (presently ranked fifteenth) as effectively.
Not solely ought to the Bulls come out hungry right here for his or her first win of the season, however they will even be in search of revenge for final 12 months’s three-point dwelling loss. More importantly, that preparation and sport expertise will assist for this matchup in opposition to a really complicated and distinctive Chanticleer offense.
Plus, Coastal is far worse general this 12 months after mass roster attrition, whereas Buffalo ought to be barely improved.
I like Buffalo at 14 or above in opposition to a Chants group that would overlook this one a bit with their Sun Belt opener subsequent week.
3:30pm ET · ESPN+
Can Appalachian State keep away from a letdown and again up its huge upset win at Texas A&M? It definitely helps to play your private home convention opener with College GameDay on the town.
Last 12 months, Appalachian State received at Troy, 45-7, as 10-point favorites, outgunning the Trojans in complete yards, 445-142.
Surprisingly, since 2005, groups have gone an uber-impressive 39-25-3 ATS (60.9%) the week after pulling off an upset as 17-plus level underdogs in opposition to a ranked opponent. Those groups have a ridiculous 17-4-2 ATS (81%) document as favorites of six-plus on this state of affairs, protecting by slightly below a landing on common.