SMU vs Tulane Odds
The SMU Mustangs and Tulane Green Wave will face off in New Orleans on Thursday evening with large implications on the AAC Championship image.
SMU might want to win out and get a little bit assist subsequent weekend with the intention to make it with a tiebreaker state of affairs.
The path to the AAC Championship is a little bit clearer for Tulane. It must win this weekend after which beat Cincinnati subsequent weekend to punch its ticket. There would nonetheless be different methods it might make it, however that will be the clearest route.
SMU has made it this far on the arm of Tanner Mordecai and its explosive passing offense. A suspect protection has been its downfall, although, and that will come again to chew it towards a robust Tulane staff.
SMU’s offense has been reasonably profitable this season, however it does depend on large performs within the passing recreation at a excessive price. The Mustangs rank 53rd in Offensive Success Rate however fiftieth in Rushing Success Rate and 53rd when passing.
They have the ninth-most explosive passing offense and fifth-most explosive offense general, resulting in a rating of twenty second in passing PPA and ninth in Finishing Drives.
SP+ surprisingly ranks this because the Tenth-best offense in faculty soccer, and PFF has it at Eleventh.
Mordecai has been unbelievable this yr, averaging 0.17 EPA per dropback and placing up 2,780 yards, 27 passing touchdowns and simply seven interceptions in 324 passing makes an attempt. Mordecai ranks sixteenth within the nation in PFF passing grade amongst quarterbacks who’ve performed at the least 20% of their staff’s passing snaps.
This Mustangs protection has been a real weak spot for them this yr. SMU ranks 77th in Defensive Success Rate and 84th in Finishing Drives. Most of its points stem from the working recreation, the place it is 96th in Success Rate, 119th in explosiveness and 121st in PPA.
The passing protection has been higher, rating 52nd in Success Rate. However, this unit ranks 117th in passing explosiveness this season. Tulane would not sometimes generate explosive performs via the air, however it could possibly do exactly that towards this protection.
By nearly all accounts, this SMU protection is without doubt one of the worst within the AAC. SP+ ranks this protection 107th, whereas it is available in at 118th in PFF’s grading.
Green Wave Offense
Tulane is primarily identified for being a run-heavy staff in recent times, and it ranks forty sixth in rush price this season. However, the Green Wave ranks solely 78th in Rushing Success Rate. Because of their means to interrupt off explosive runs (forty fifth), this speeding offense ranks forty first in PPA.
When Tulane passes the ball, it finds success. The Green Wave ranks Thirtieth in Passing Success Rate and thirty first in passing PPA however simply 78th in passing explosiveness.
Michael Pratt has achieved a superb job because the quarterback of this staff. He ranks 51st in PFF passing grade and averages 0.09 EPA per dropback. Pratt has achieved a stable job of taking good care of the ball this season, throwing solely 4 interceptions to 17 touchdowns.
Green Wave Defense
Mordecai and the SMU offense are reasonably profitable however come up large on explosive performs. Luckily for Tulane, that’s what it excels at defending.
Tulane ranks forty seventh in Passing Success Rate however is 18th-best in passing explosiveness. This unit has the Eleventh-best PFF protection grade within the nation and seventeenth highest-graded general protection.
The Green Wave additionally defends the run comparatively effectively. They rank forty second in Rushing Success Rate, thirty fourth in explosiveness and forty fifth in PPA. SP+ ranks this because the Thirtieth-best protection within the nation.
SMU vs. Tulane Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns beneath to cover or present how SMU and Tulane match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Tulane Defense
Tulane Offense vs. SMU Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||33||89|
|Seconds per Play||21.4 (6)||26.7 (76)|
|Rush Rate||48.3% (99)||57.9% (36)|
Data by way of SchoolFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
SMU vs Tulane Betting Pick
The strengths of Tulane’s protection straight counter what SMU is nice at. This ought to make for an attention-grabbing struggle, however I believe SMU’s offense will nonetheless be capable to discover some success via the air.
Despite the opportunity of SMU succeeding via the air, I believe there is a excessive likelihood of Tulane lighting up the scoreboard. This Mustangs protection has been atrocious this season, and the Green Wave are outfitted effectively sufficient to benefit from this.
I consider Tulane will choose up the victory on Thursday evening to maneuver to 9-2 with a possible spot within the convention championship on the road. Unfortunately, this line is at 3.5 now, however I might nonetheless take the Green Wave as much as 4.
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