The Six Pack: Texas A&M vs. Miami, Penn State vs. Auburn among the best Week 3 college football picks

It has not been the best begin for The Six Pack. After treading water for the first two Saturdays, we had a dropping document in Week 2. However, it wasn’t all unhealthy; the Kansas Jayhawks got here by handy us our first Lock of the Week winner this 12 months, in order that felt good. When in bother, you possibly can all the time rely on the football powerhouse that’s Kansas.

Of course, whereas I say that with my tongue planted firmly inside my cheek, there’s loads of fact in it. Teams like Kansas are sometimes undervalued on the market, notably early in the season when sportsbooks may nonetheless be giving slightly an excessive amount of respect to previous efficiency and never sufficient to what we’re seeing now.

I’m trying to exploit that in a couple of of my picks this week. All odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

Games of the Week

Featured Game | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes

no 13 Miami at No. 24 Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher might wish to think about sending Kirk Ferentz a thanks word. If not for the comical inadequacy of the Iowa offense, extra individuals can be speaking about how anemic the Aggies offense has been. We’re speaking a couple of Texas A&M offense that managed solely 186 yards and 14 factors towards an Appalachian State protection that gave up 567 yards and 63 factors towards North Carolina solely per week earlier. Unless the Mountaineers imported a completely new protection in the week between these video games, the Aggies have way more to fret about than the upset. If that offense does not determine issues out, there will probably be a lot extra losses forward.

One of them could possibly be this weekend towards Miami. The Hurricanes have appeared great on offense to date, however contemplating the competitors, it is arduous to place a lot religion in the numbers. So now we have two offenses we do not know a lot about towards two defenses which have given way more cause to belief them. There’s an opportunity the Hurricanes go to College Station and pull off the upset, however there’s additionally an opportunity the Aggies get their act collectively and rebound from an abysmal efficiency. Whatever occurs, I’m not anticipating many factors to be scored. Texas A&M 23, Miami 20 | Under 44.5

Featured Game | Auburn Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

no 22 Penn State at Auburn: In Week 1, Utah traveled to Gainesville to tackle Florida as street favorites. We picked Florida as our Upset of the Week in The Six Pack for a easy cause: you must most likely wager the SEC workforce at any time when you will get it as a house underdog in a nonconference sport. History suggests the convention has executed fairly properly in nonconference video games. Well, not surprisingly, Florida beat Utah, and now right here we’re two weeks later with Penn State touring to Auburn as a 3-point favourite.

To be clear, I don’t suppose Penn State is pretty much as good as Utah, nor do I consider Auburn is pretty much as good as Florida. That doesn’t suggest I’m keen to belief a Penn State workforce that appeared shaky in a street sport towards Purdue in Week 0 to have a simple time at Jordan-Hare. I do not see both of those groups having the ability to pull too distant from the different, so give me the Auburn and the factors. Auburn 24, Penn State 23 | Auburn +3

Lock of the Week

Featured Game | Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas at Houston: We’re going again to the Kansas properly, child! The Jayhawks are a workforce the energy rankings have not caught onto but. It was the case final week, and it is the case once more this week towards Houston. It’s comprehensible, seeing as Houston is taken into account considered one of the best Group of Five groups in the nation and Kansas is, properly, Kansas. Don’t be fooled, although. This might show to be a nightmare matchup for the Cougars.

Kansas has considered one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, rating tenth at 17.5%. Its explosive rush charge of 16.7% ranks sixth. Houston struggled to get previous UTSA in its opener and misplaced to Texas Tech final week primarily as a result of it could not cease the run. The Cougars protection ranks 117th nationally in success charge towards the run and 104th in the charge of explosive runs it is permitting. I do not know if the Jayhawks will pull off a street upset for the second straight week, however they’re a particularly troublesome matchup for this Houston protection and will make this uncomfortable. Houston 35, Kansas 31 | Kansas +9

Under of the Week

Featured Game | Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada at Iowa: Should we blindly wager Iowa unders till confirmed in any other case? I believe so! I already talked about how horrible Iowa has been, however to drive the level dwelling with fancy numbers, the Hawkeyes offense ranks one hundred and thirtieth (of 131) in success charge, 131st in factors per possession, 131st in EPA per play, and 1,000,000th in vibes. That stated, I count on it to play higher this week, however solely as a result of Nevada is not some stalwart defensively. Who is aware of? Maybe enjoying Iowa will repair Nevada’s defensive numbers.

Anyway, the cause I like this underneath is not simply that Iowa’s offense is terrible. Nevada’s offense is terrible, too, and it is going towards an Iowa protection that’s nonetheless fairly good. All these fancy stats I discussed with the Iowa offense? Nevada does not rank a lot better in any of them, and the good elements all stem from final week’s 41 factors towards Incarnate Word (which scored 55, by the method). Iowa 27, Nevada 3 | Under 39

State Champion of the Week

Featured Game | Virginia Cavaliers vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

Old Dominion at Virginia: Virginia is one other workforce the rankings have not caught onto, however the market appears prefer it has. Remember final season when the Cavaliers scored 34.6 factors per sport and Brennan Armstrong was on the verge of setting all-time ACC passing data? That offense now not exists. Robert Anae, Virginia’s offensive coordinator final 12 months, took that offense with him to Syracuse. None of which means Tony Elliott and Des Kitchings will not get it discovered, however the Cavs are struggling badly.

Virginia ranks 114th in factors per drive, one hundred and fifth in success charge, and a hundred and tenth in EPA per snap. Its offensive line is an enormous cause; it hasn’t been in a position to defend Armstrong (UVA ranks 131st in strain allowed) or open holes in the run sport. I do not suppose Old Dominion pulls off the upset right here prefer it did towards Virginia Tech to develop into Virginia State Champion, however I can not belief an offense as unhealthy as Virginia’s to cowl this unfold proper now. Virginia 27, Old Dominion 20 | Old Dominion +9

Upset of the Week

Featured Game | Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois: Remember how I used to be saying to take the SEC workforce as a house canine in a nonconference sport? Considering my emotions on that, how do you suppose I really feel about an SEC workforce being an underdog to a MAC workforce? I’m not going to argue that Vanderbilt is a powerhouse just because it is in the SEC, but it surely’s a greater workforce than the market realizes. The offense, with Mike Wright at QB, is legit. I do not know that the Commodores will put up 63 factors on the Huskies like they did to Hawaii, however that is extra due to how NIU performs than its protection.

The Huskies transfer slowly on offense and restrict possessions. It’s why they’re concerned in so many one-score video games. However, when the protection has been on the discipline, it hasn’t executed a great job of stopping groups. The Huskies rank 93rd in defensive success charge and 119th in factors allowed per drive. Do not overthink this one. Vanderbilt 31, Northern Illinois 23 | Vanderbilt (+115)

Games of the Week

0-2

1-4

-3.4

Lock of the Week

1-0

1-2

-1.2

general

2-4

7-9

-2.32

Which college football picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 3, and which favorites will go down arduous? Visit SportsLine to see which groups will win and canopy the unfold — all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned virtually $3,400 in revenue over the previous six-plus seasons — and discover out.

Leave a Comment