Week 11 of the NFL season will get began Thursday night time with a matchup between the 6-3 Tennessee Titans and 4-6 Green Bay Packers (-3, 41) at Lambeau Field. The Titans are coming off a 17-10 win over the Broncos, and the Packers are coming off a 31-28 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
What are you able to count on from a betting standpoint for Thursday night time’s sport?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth WalderESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz present their prime performs for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.
The Packers ended a five-game shedding streak final week, knocking off the Cowboys, and at the moment are a 3-point favourite vs. a Tennessee group that has gained six of its final seven. Are you shopping for that the Packers are again or taking a Titans group that continues to seek out methods to win?
Marks: Weather situations are anticipated to be brutal; 20 levels, 20-MPH winds, attainable snow and temperatures feeling within the single digits. Rodgers ought to thrive in these hometown situations, the place the Packers rating on 37% of their offensive drives in comparison with 20% on the highway. The Titans are the worst second-half group within the league, scoring on solely 7% of their offensive possessions. These are two of the slowest paced groups within the NFL. I’ll play the Packers -3 and the beneath.
Schatz: I feel the unfold is spot-on right here however I’ll agree with Anita taking the beneath at 41. It’s not simply the brutal climate situations, however the tempo. The Titans are final within the league working a play each 30.9 seconds, and the Packers rank thirtieth working a play each 30.2 seconds.
Moody: Although I do not know if they’re really again, I like to recommend betting on them Packers to cowl the unfold Thursday night time at dwelling. In their final eight video games performed on Thursday night time, the Packers have gone 6-1-1 towards the unfold. They lastly broke by means of offensively towards the Cowboys at Lambeau Field on Sunday and bought the win. It might be freezing in Green Bay on Thursday night time, and the wind chill might make it really feel like six levels. There can be an opportunity of snow. In their final 4 highway video games, the Titans have gone 4-0 towards the unfold, however the Packers are taking part in a lot better in entrance of the Cheeseheads.
Snellings: I’ll be contrarian and take the Titans with the factors. They’ve simply been taking part in at a better stage than the Packers, persistently, all season. Plus, the climate situations appear to work extra within the Titans’ favor, with their emphasis on the facility run sport. Trying to sort out Derrick Henry, in freezing climate, all night time lengthy? By about that fifteenth or twentieth carry, I might think about that is a really un-fun prospect for the Titans’ protection.
Two-time defending NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers has had a down 12 months by his requirements. His props for Thursday vs. the Titans are 247.5 passing yards. 22.5 completions, 33.5 makes an attempt and 1.5 TDs. Are you taking any of these?
Dolan: Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns. He has hit over this mark in seven of 10 video games performed this season. The Titans protection is dangerous towards the move, rating thirty first and permitting 273 passing yards per sport. Green Bay is averaging simply 19 factors per sport, however I feel the Titans protection may very well be uncovered by means of the air.
Marks: Rodgers over 1.5 passing TDs, over 33.5 passing makes an attempt. The Titans have among the best dashing defenses within the league, so groups should move towards them to win. Quarterbacks are averaging 40 passing makes an attempt per sport towards Tennessee (Patrick Mahomes tossed it 68 occasions), and 80% of the Packers’ TDs have come by way of the move and 90% of TDs the Titans are permitting are by means of the air.
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The Titans go as Derrick Henry goes. Henry (923 yards) is eight yards behind Saquon Barkley for the NFL lead in dashing. His dashing prop for Thursday is 97.5 yards and he’s the betting favourite at +225 to finish the season with essentially the most dashing yards. Are you taking part in both sport prop or future?
Marks: Henry over 97.5 dashing yards. Henry is the straw that stirs the Titans’ drink and now faces a Packers protection that ranks twenty seventh within the NFL towards the run (twenty eighth in yards earlier than contact and twenty fifth after). Henry is averaging over 120 yards per sport, and with climate situations anticipated to really feel within the single digits, he might be laborious to sort out — not to mention anybody who desires to strive.
Schatz: It is not simply that Henry will get by far the vast majority of the Titans’ carries, but in addition that the Packers protection is depressing towards the run. They rank final within the league in defensive adjusted line yards and thirty first in stuffing runners for a loss or no acquire. Especially within the chilly climate, Henry shouldn’t have any downside piling up dashing yardage, and I like him to go over his dashing prop.
Snellings: Henry over 97.5 dashing yards. As I discussed above, this shapes up like a Henry sport, to me. The Titans’ reliance on him, the temperature, and the Packers’ struggles towards the run mix to make him a play for me.
Is there the rest you want or are taking part in on this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: Under 41 factors for me We know Tennessee desires to run the ball with Henry, which ought to work properly towards a Green Bay protection that ranks thirtieth within the NFL in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA metric. The Packers placed on a pleasant offensive present towards Dallas, however this unit nonetheless ranks twenty fifth within the NFL in scoring (18.5 PPG).
Marks: Aaron Jones over 24.5 receiving yards. Jones is the lead again for the Packers, even with AJ Dillon’s availability. The Titans solely permit 3.9 yards per carry, so groups common lower than 20 carries a sport and turn out to be pass-heavy. Jones is a big a part of the Packers’ passing assault and is averaging over 20 receiving yards per sport (9 catches for 53 yards final sport), and has 228 receiving yards on the season. The Titans have been weak towards receiving ball-carriers.
Moody: Ryan Tannehill beneath 187.5 passing yards. The Packers’ protection permits the seventh-most dashing yards per sport. The Titans have relied closely on Henry all season, and that pattern appears set to proceed. This season, Tennessee has run the ball on 52% of performs, tied for third-most within the league. The league common is 41%. With the matchup and climate, it is sensible for the Titans to run the ball. Tannehill has averaged 193.1 passing yards per sport this season.